Consumer Confidence ... How We Deterred Iran Last Time ... JOLTS – Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“For the past 30 years, self-identified Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in all but a few years. Now the parties are tied at a relatively low 27 percent each.” – Newsweek.
Opinion: Matthews: 27: A number that should terrify both Republicans and Democrats (msn.com)
Hmmmmm...  100% - 27%R - 27%D = 46% Independent.  It wouldn’t take many defections to give the independents a majority.  Who says No Name Party can’t win?
 
-The US has been attacked 150 times since the October 7 Hamas/Palestine attack on Israel. – Fox News.
 
HOW WE DETERRED IRAN IN THE GULF LAST TIME (WSJ)
“Fortunately, we know how to re-establish deterrence. We’ve been here before.
On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts was hit by an Iranian mine while escorting Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The explosion lifted the ship out of the water, ripped a 30-foot hole below the waterline, destroyed a 15-foot section of the keel, and seriously injured 10 sailors... Four days later, at the direction of President Reagan, the U.S. Navy, in combined surface-ship and air attacks, engaged the Iranian Navy in a daylong battle named Praying Mantis... Praying Mantis remains a case study in strengthening deterrence. Our victory kept Iran’s navy at bay for more than two decades and helped change the course of the Iran-Iraq War, which had upended the region for eight bloody years. Iran never laid mines in the Gulf again.” - William J. Luti, retired U.S. Navy captain and an adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-we-deterred-iran-in-the-gulf-last-time-reagan-navy-operation-praying-mantis-580b3c95
 
THE ANTI-LNG CRUSADE (WSJ)
“Americans received a preview of a second Biden term on Friday when the President halted permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. Climate politics has become the tail wagging this Administration’s economic, national security and foreign policy. President Biden isn’t running for re-election. Climate lobbyist Bill McKibben and his TikTok army are... Who cares about the real-world impact, or the signal to allies and adversaries that the U.S. isn’t a reliable partner? Europe and Asia should plan to import their gas from Qatar, Russia or even Iran. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin now know they can exploit the Administration’s climate obsession to undermine U.S. interests... China was the biggest coal importer, followed by India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Demand for LNG has outstripped supply especially as Europe tries to wean itself from Russian gas. A Bangladesh energy official complained last year that Asian countries couldn’t buy gas because of skyrocketing prices. Instead, they burned coal. How will this be good for the climate?” Commentary at
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-lng-export-pause-white-house-tiktok-climate-bill-mckibben-3efb5287?mod=opinion_lead_pos12
My cmt: This policy will increase Global CO2 emissions as more countries burn coal, increase unemployment, and hurt the United States. This is as irrational as was ending the Keystone XL pipeline.  That forced oil to travel by rail at greater environmental risk, higher cost, and increased pollution. The Global Warming lobby isn’t about the environment – they just want to hurt “big oil” and the United States.
 
“U.S. natural-gas supply is perfectly ample but activists have prevented the necessary pipelines to meet demand in the Northeast. A recent report by Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corp. indicates that last year New York City came dangerously close to running out of gas to maintain apartment-building heat.
...we have a picture of Americans on a path to commit energy suicide in the name of climate change while doing nothing about climate change. This isn’t sustainable and won’t be, but it may well take something like the posited New York City deep freeze. Only then will politicians stop pretending to do something about climate change in favor of actually protecting the energy security of Americans amid a changing climate whose processes are not well understood and certainly are not being meaningfully ameliorated by public policy.” – Holman W Jemkins, Jr. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-climate-policy-went-wrong-new-aerosal-study-energy-subsidies-carbon-tax-4e437371?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos1
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021... ‘January’s increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor,’ said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board...Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months continued to gradually ease in January...” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (CNN Business)
“The US job market remains strong and workers are still in demand...However, there are plenty of indications that activity continues to cool. The number of available jobs in the United States unexpectedly rose in December to an estimated 9.026 million, according to seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday... the trajectory of the data paints a picture of a solid, but slowing, labor market.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-december/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4925.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13. 31.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.036.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I really dislike politicians.  We listen to the Administration claim how wonderful the stock market is under Biden. It’s making new-all-time highs. But let’s be real – the S&P 500 has gone almost nowhere in two years. It is now 2.5% higher than it was 2-years ago and we experienced a 25% bear market drop in the interim. If that is a good market, I don’t want any part of it. Trump’s claims are almost as laughable. The truth is, politicians don’t have a lot of control over the economy and certainly not the stock market. Even while we’ve run large deficits since the Reagan years, we have continued to experience recessions and significant drops in stock markets. I’ll get off my soap box...
 
There was a Bollinger Squeeze 2 weeks ago. I said at the time, “A squeeze precedes a big breakout either up or down. Bollinger Bands are now very close to “overbought” so it looks like the break out is most likely to be down.” That turned out not to be the case.  Markets are up about 4% since the squeeze was in effect, so the breakout was up.
 
Markets still look good though we’ve seen a lot of up-moves and too many up-days usually result in a pullback of some kind.  Markets are not there yet and a down-day like today is good news.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +9 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -11 to +6. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.