“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
(1)“I read your [WSJ] editorial with great dismay. You mention that a second Trump term would be chaotic and not desirable. I disagree. Chaos is exactly what we need to drain the swamp and stop our nation’s descent.” - James Angelini, WSJ Letters
(PCE)
” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-earnings-01-26-2024/card/pce-inflation-report-what-to-expect-G4Wd9ub2n5IuigSsOu4Y
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 4891.
-VIX declined about 1% to 13.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.139.
UWM – Added 1/22/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
Intel beat on income and revenue, but guidance was poor
for the coming quarter.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Friday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The S&P 500 is roughly in the middle of its channel. If this is a turning point, I’m not sure whether the markets are turning up or down. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong, and like today, sometimes hard to interpret.
We look at a summary of indicators on Friday. (These
indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than
the 20 that I report on daily.) The weekly rundown of indicators turned Bullish
this week: now 4-bear and 20-bull.
BULL SIGNS
-There have been 2 Follow-thru Days recently: 18 & 19 January.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment got very bearish recently due to the continued march higher. Too much bearishness is bullish.)
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 22 Jan.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
NEUTRAL
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is 10.6% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-5.1% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 25 January 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.)
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative ending this signal.
BEAR SIGNS
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-RSI.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
On Monday’s update of the Friday summary of indicators (20
December 2021), 9 days before the top of the 2-year long 25% correction, there
were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 5 bear-signs and 20-Bull.
Last week, there were 11 bear-sign and 10 bull-signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +5 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -38 to -28.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: SENTIMENT & PRICE are bullish; VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs sooner rather than later.
I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Intel expects earnings per share of 13 cents on between $12.2 billion and $13.2 billion in sales, versus LSEG expectations of 33 cents per share on $14.15 billion of revenue.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/intel-intc-earnings-report-q4-2023.html
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being. Could it get any worse for them? Yes, it could – more loose bolts found Tuesday.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
Friday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The S&P 500 is roughly in the middle of its channel. If this is a turning point, I’m not sure whether the markets are turning up or down. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong, and like today, sometimes hard to interpret.
-There have been 2 Follow-thru Days recently: 18 & 19 January.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment got very bearish recently due to the continued march higher. Too much bearishness is bullish.)
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 22 Jan.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Bollinger Bands.
-The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-The S&P 500 is 10.6% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). - Expired
-There were Hindenburg Omen signals 11 & 12 Sept 2023 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
-5.1% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 25 January 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.)
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative ending this signal.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-RSI.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
