Consumer Confidence ... Housing Starts ... Building Permits ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The Biden-Harris administration announced a multi-billion dollar loan for electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian Monday as the company continues to hemorrhage cash. Rivian lost $1.1 billion and saw its revenue fall nearly $500 million in the third quarter of 2024 as a slackening of consumer demand for EVs hampered the industry’s growth. Now, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has agreed to a conditional commitment to loan the automaker roughly $6.6 billion to help finance the construction of its manufacturing facility in Georgia, according to a press release from the DOE’s Loan Programs Office (LPO).” – Story at...
Lame Duck Biden Admin Cuts Massive Check For Failing EV Manufacturer
My cmt: Clearly, the DOE has too much discretion over their funding. How is it possible for them to give this much money to a failing company without congressional oversight!? That’s about $700 per taxpayer. Rivian won’t last 5-years.
 
HOUSING / BUILDING PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“Recent data from the Census Bureau reveals housing starts fell 3.1% below September’s revised estimate, landing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000 units. Building permits declined 0.6% from September, marking a 7.7% drop from October 2023.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/millions-homes-stay-unbuilt-builders-151520747.html
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via prnewswire)
"Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years...November's increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. Meanwhile, consumers' expectations about future business conditions were unchanged and they were slightly less positive about future income." Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-improved-again-in-november-302316573.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 6022.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.1.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.295%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high Tuesday.  About 6% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. That demonstrates a fairly broad advance, especially on a day when internals were weak. It’s another confirmation that markets look good and can continue higher.
 
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +15, a very bullish sign.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) reversed higher today so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.