Housing Starts ... Building Permits ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
WW III HAS ALREADY BEGUN (Moneywise via msn.com)
“The head of America’s largest bank told an audience at the Institute of International Finance that his team is running scenarios in preparation for a global conflict involving nuclear powers. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told the crowd that war was imminent and nuclear proliferation was a greater existential threat than climate change.”
‘World War III has already begun,’ Jamie Dimon warns — says he and his team are preparing for serious conflict with Russia, China. 3 assets to protect yourself in 2025
 
HOUSING STARTS / BUILDING PERMITS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in October likely as Hurricanes Helene and Milton depressed activity in the South while permits rose slightly, indicating that an anticipated rebound probably would be muted by higher mortgage rates... Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, plunged 6.9%... Permits for future construction of single-family housing gained 0.5%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-134759234.html
 
GIVING BACK THE POST ELECTION BOOM (Heritage Capital)
“After the initial “risk on” market surge the day after the election, not much has happened. In fact, some indices are lower... Markets saw a surge with some follow through. Now, all but the initial surge has been given back. And don’t be surprised if the initial surge goes away before Thanksgiving. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, I think it would set the stage for a solid year-end rally lasting into January... The recent pullback isn’t a major, belling ringing buy. But it is a tidy little pullback in an ongoing and strong bull market. At a minimum I expect a bounce on Monday or Tuesday. And I remain in the “buy weakness” mode until proven otherwise.” – Paul  Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/markets-giving-back-post-election-boom/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5917.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.396%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -5 is a BEARISH to NEUTRAL indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) reversed lower today so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bearish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
Some of the bearsih indicators were: Smoothed up-volume is falling; 10-day Breadth turned negative; there was another Hindenburg Omen; Utilities are outperforming the S&P 500; new-high/new-low data is bearish; the S&P 500 has gotten to far ahead of other issues on the NYSE.  
 
Market Internals were relatively flat Tuesday while the S&P 500 managed to climb higher.
 
We still may have seen an end to the selling, but it is not encouraging to see indicators fall as they did today. On a good note, the S&P 500 is only 2.2% above its 50-dMA, so a  retreat from today’s close would not have far to go before it meets strong resistance.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.