Retail Sales ... NY Fed Manufacturing ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize
half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
Let me count the ways. – Michael Ramirez.
From...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html#/
My cmt: How is it possible to lose to Trump? Trump got
the same number of votes in 2024 as he got in 2020 when he lost to Biden. The difference was that Biden got 10-million
more votes that Harris. In other words, 10-million Democrats and Independents
stayed home rather than vote for Harris. Why? See above.
RETAIL SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“October retail sales grew from the prior month,
reflecting continued resilience in the American consumer. Retail sales rose
0.4% in October.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-retail-sales-top-estimates-september-spending-revised-sharply-higher-133733716.html
NY FED MANUFACTURING (CNY Central News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a survey
detailing manufacturing trends in New York state. The report found
manufacturing activity grew in New York state in November, with sharp increases
in new orders and shipments. The survey went on to say price increases remained
steady, and firms remained optimistic about future conditions.” Story at...
https://www.cnycentral.com/news/local/empire-state-manufacturing-survey-shows-steady-growth-in-new-york-businesses
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg)
“US industrial production declined in October as the
impacts from a Boeing Co. machinists’ strike and a pair of hurricanes
reverberated through manufacturing for a second month.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-industrial-production-falls-strike-144818873.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.3% to 5871.
-VIX rose about 12.8% to 16.14.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly
(compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.445%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs
and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +3 (3 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +3 is back to a NEUTRAL indication.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the
chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is
Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for
sell signals.)
Friday, there was Higher
than normal unchanged-volume, but not as high as those supposed reversal
signals. Still this could be reversal sign – maybe back up? Wishful
thinking. This indicator is not reliable. And speaking of unreliable... There
was a Hindenburg Omen today...
Hindenburg Omen: (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp).
As we’ve noted before, the Omen sends a lot of false warnings. Further, the
Fosback New-high/new-low Logic indicator uses a similar analytic approach, but
it is closer to buy than sell, so I won’t get too worried about the Hindenburg
signal.
Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost
always occur on Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all
statistically-significant, down-days occur at bottoms, i.e., today could have
been an end to the weakness we have seen recently in the markets, but it is far
from certain.
Still, it is likely that
we may have seen an end to selling today. We’ll see...
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced
by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials. It will take me a while to make changes to my
programming.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
