Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” - Thomas Sowell
 
WHY TRUMP WANTS HEGSETH AT DEFENSE (WSJ)
“The choice of Mr. Hegseth has shocked many in Washington, and that by itself might be a recommendation. He could hardly do worse than the so-called adults in the room of recent years. The armed services can’t make their recruiting quotas, America’s military industrial base has been exposed as inadequate with little protest from Pentagon leaders, and no one in the civilian or military ranks was held accountable for the Afghanistan debacle.
The 44-year-old Mr. Hegseth has combat experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and has maintained his military ties as an officer in the National Guard. He has been an advocate for veterans, both on TV and as a member of veterans groups. He’s smart and telegenic. Yet he’s never run a big institution, much less one of the largest and most hidebound on the planet... Mr. Trump’s first term was a security success because he followed a policy of peace through strength. But the world is more dangerous now, and the mix of his nominees suggests his second term is likely to be a wilder ride.” WSJ Editorial Board. Opinion at... 
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/pete-hegseth-secretary-of-defense-donald-trump-pentagon-military-fox-news-6ea89c1a?mod=opinion_trendingnow_article_pos1
 
TRUMP KEEPS TROLLING (WSJ)
“Pete Hegseth as defense secretary? This is unserious and deeply alarming. He is a decorated military veteran with Ivy League degrees, but he has no serious governmental or managerial experience, no history of international accomplishment... As for Matt Gaetz being nominated as attorney general—well, this is just straight-out trolling, right? The four-term Florida congressman has won a reputation as disruptive, divisive, aggressive, lacking in groundedness and wisdom, and dogged by ethics allegations. He seems to see politics as an offshoot of showbiz and has entertained his followers with successive attempts to take down GOP leaders in the House, on behalf of—well, it’s never quite clear. This we need in America’s top law-enforcement official?...  Mr. Trump often confuses his own antic malice for daring, his own unseriousness for boldness. How amazing that in the rosy glow of election, he will spend so much political capital and goodwill on confirmation fights he may well, and certainly deserves to, lose.” – Peggy Noonan. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-keeps-trolling-as-the-resistance-fades-appointments-confirmations-cope-a6a8bd40?mod=trending_now_opn_5
 
FINAL TALLY ON ELECTION NUMBERS
Trump’s 2024 votes: 76,431,000, 3% more than when he lost to Biden.
Trump’s 2020 votes: 74,224,000
 
Harris’ 2024 Votes: 73,738,000
Biden’s 2020 Votes: 81,284,000
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5894.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.414%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
QLD – added 11/5.
UWM – added 11/11
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators). (Friday’s spread should have been +1; the Hindenburg Omen remains until the McClellan Oscillator turns positive.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of -1 remains a NEUTRAL indication.
 
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is moving higher so the overall 50-Indicator spread signal is Bullish. (I follow the 10-dMA for trading buy-signals and as an indicator for sell signals.)
 
I noted Friday that it is likely that we may have seen an end to selling Friday. Today was a good first start, but we’ll need to see some follow through. On a good note, there are still enough bull signs to suggest that a significant correction is unlikely.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish on the markets.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Intel and Dow Inc. have been replaced by Sherwin-Williams and Nvidia Corp. in the Dow Industrials.  It will take me a while to make changes to my programming.
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.