Navigate the Stock Market: July 2025

Friday, July 25, 2025

Durable Goods ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Driving food costs.” -Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
My cmt: I think it is silly to deport migrants who are working and supporting the US economy. I’d give working illegals temporary Green cards on the spot and require them to register with ICE within 2 months or face deportation.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

“When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.” - Thomas Sowell,

ICE DATA SHOWS LESS THAN 1% DEPORTED HAD MURDER CONVICTIONS (CBS NEWS)
“President Trump campaigned on a vow to round up the "worst of the worst" offenders among the criminals who were living illegally inside the United States. But CBS News has obtained deportation data that indicates the Trump administration's deportation push has ensnared many undocumented immigrants without violent criminal records...Only 1.8% or 2,355 of the total convictions against those criminals had to do with sex offenses. Another 1,628, or 1.2%, were for sexual assault. The number of homicide convictions totaled just 729, or 0.58%, and the number of convicted kidnappers were 536, or 0.42%. About 10,738 convictions were for assault, or 8.5%, the data showed... The CBS News-obtained document shows that 3,256 of the more than 100,000 people removed were known or suspected gang members or terrorists.” Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-ice-data-shows-less-than-1-of-deportees-had-murder-convictions/
My Cmt: This was a biased piece whose mission was to convince its readers that ICE is spinning the data. To me, the spin is by CBS News. The numbers look very high. The article notes that 1 in 200 (0.5%) have been convicted of murder. That is about 10,000 times greater than the murder rate in the US general population. (Per Google AI, in 2023, the U.S. homicide rate was approximately 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.) Even if we subtracted children from the US homicide rate, the rate of murder committed by illegals is frighteningly high when compared to the US overall rate. Looks like, the CBS reporter dislikes Trump and failed math.

DURABLE GOODS (Market Place via msn)
“Orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June, but most of the drop was tied to passenger planes, the Commerce Department said Friday. Outside of the transportation sector, orders rose 0.2%, the third straight monthly gain.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-orders-weaker-in-june-due-to-planes-business-investment-holding-up-despite-uncertainty/ar-AA1JhNsL?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6389.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.386% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today; Breadth bounced above 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s a good sign. We hate to see new, all-time highs with collapsing breadth.

When the Index makes a new high, we always check the % of issues on the NYSE making new 52-week highs. Today’s number of 3.5% was well below the average for this stat, but it was high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.

However, there were other warnings signs. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were overbought. That’s a worrying sign of a top, although I would need more top-indicator signals before I’d adjust the portfolio.

BOTTOM LINE
There were some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, July 24, 2025

National Activity Index ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

DEMOCRATS ATTACK GIG WORKERS (WSJ)
“Senate Democrats are breathless about Americans losing government healthcare, but they’re dead set against expanding private coverage. They’re attacking a plan to help gig workers get benefits—merely because unions won’t get a cut... Independent contractors can’t unionize under the National Labor Relations Act, so unions and the Democrats they support want to outlaw contract work...This political opposition has deterred several gig companies from offering benefits. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has pledged more than $650 million a year to fund health insurance and paid time off if lawmakers would withdraw the threat of reclassifying the company’s drivers...If not for the opposition of lawmakers who claim to value healthcare, millions of workers could receive benefits without trading their freedom to get them.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gig-workers-benefits-democrats-labor-unions-bill-cassidy-bernie-sanders-8ae57868?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhy3e-OJ1wYVE1HfK-x3XVywgOj4uonNBaMRWkrJLiigVGEe_7cC9E-K_3IBwM%3D&gaa_ts=68817314&gaa_sig=P3RQWgV9tzAP77lhJsSNhf8_mv4wDKi1HOsIc4M4DN3ZOAwW2b_wL3m24eLqWJR6SBYRHIE2JHnnOZC1H0pKUA%3D%3D

NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure... The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.10 in June from -0.16 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from May, and all four categories made negative contributions in June.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/24/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-june-2025

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities...Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-labor-market-steady-jobless-claims-three-month-low-2025-07-24/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6363.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 15.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.40% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators reversed and slipped to neutral at +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread also reversed down – a bearish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new high today, but breadth declined. Breadth slipped below 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. In other words, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have fallen over the last 2 weeks. Other measures of breadth declined too - the number of new-52-week highs declined, but remained high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.

Yesterday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so today’s weakness is not a surprise.

One encouraging sign, the S&P 500 has not fallen below its lower trend line. Hopefully, that will continue and indicators will improve.

BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

LAWFARE AGAINST THE FED (WSJ)
“Agitators within the Trump Administration for weeks have flogged a Federal Reserve office renovation as a pretext to harass Chairman Jerome Powell. Now comes the lawfare, with a criminal perjury referral against Mr. Powell to the Department of Justice from a Member of Congress. How low can this crowd go?...The Congresswoman [Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, Florida] is trying to criminalize what at its core is an argument over monetary policy...Whatever Mr. Powell’s rhetorical inexactitude, it’s madness to create a new precedent for prosecuting officials for policy disagreements. Doing so is the road to the hyper-politicized monetary policy you’d expect in Argentina.” – The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-anna-paulina-luna-lawfare-federal-reserve-donald-trump-be289db7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhAs8QgY1cOuD9I9QmXUmXa9zjllk3mZA2Waw0geEpWASo6S0bYA2ztUc89s4M%3D&gaa_ts=688166d3&gaa_sig=_w-7ElN26PAMm542r6aLBDsVQbrhwB_xgJmSxtliYYcDL_VIpc7eqfbcyCtW1_-gBs5Qt6Wf7wQj312TJSNmUA%3D%3D

EXISTING HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Sales of previously-owned homes in the United States hit their lowest rate in nine months, according to industry data released Wednesday, as high home prices and mortgage rates weighed on the market. Existing home sales dropped by 2.7 percent last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-dip-141216401.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6359.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to Bullish at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed higher too – a bullish sign.

I noted yesterday (Tuesday), that only 2.8% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs suggesting a correction of greater than 10%. At today’s all-time high for the S&P 500, that warning was canceled; breadth broadened out and new-52-week-high numbers significantly improved. They are still below average, but good enough.

Do the indicators suggest correction fears are over? I’d say, “sort of.” A correction is coming – they always are – but for now, it appears that the correction has been postponed. Only 2 top indicators are warning of a top and they are not always reliable.

BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Leading Economic Indicators ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral at +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

I commented a few weeks back that the S&P 500 was in a parabolic rise - a bad sign. That condition hasn’t been resolved, although the rate of rise has declined since we first mentioned it.

I noted yesterday that the % of new-52-week highs is a very important stat when markets are making new all-time highs. Over the month of July, the % of new, 52-week highs occurring at new, all-time highs for the S&P 500 has been falling. It was 6.8% on 3 July. At each new high it has been lower and today (Tuesday), only 2.8% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs. That’s a low number and suggests a correction of greater than 10%. The last time the % of 52-week highs signaled a correction the signal was followed by a 19% correction, so we can’t be happy now.

At that top in April, there were 7 top-indicators warning of a top. Now there is only 1 top indicator, so I think a top is coming soon, but markets may not be there yet.

In July of 2024 when we saw this indicator flash a warning, it was about 2-weeks before the top of an 8.5% correction.

BOTTOM LINE
I expect a correction soon. I’ll reduce stock holdings when more indicators decline.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Monday, July 21, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

TRUMP’S BIG BEAUTIFUL BUDGET BUSTER (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which he signed into law this month, will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade, according to a new report published Monday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/21/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-is-projected-to-add-3point4-trillion-to-the-debt-budget-office-says.html
"I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore...This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong” - Elon Musk

SCAM VICTIMS POINT FINGER AT BANKS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“For nearly 50 years, Anamarie Hurt trusted her husband, Craig, to manage their finances. And he did a good job of it, making investments that grew into a comfortable nest egg. Then Craig walked into a bank in Tulsa, Okla., and began moving their retirement funds into cryptocurrency investments that turned out to be fake. A year later, after losing more than $5 million, the Hurts’ life savings were gone.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/banks-pig-butchering-fight-fraud-92c06642?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAg1VHTGwyh4F3_CWqSPDiTm7s7OlHHG8H7FiF8JWsARUoQ0zbGQJxzTI-ucQAE%3D&gaa_ts=687ea3e5&gaa_sig=iRVYnAbJL7Sx3qGErQ9tPKXKMI_wOqw4Uaf6llJ-rmetJc5-apSl7JHSbvfgGWLXYilz9MGyu7Mv5ZOpQ8gPWw%3D%3D
My cmt: Many lessons here.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6306.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.376% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral at +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. 3.4% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. I’d prefer that the number was higher, but this is not low enough to give us a correction-warning. The % of new-52-week highs is a very important stat when markets are making new all-time highs. It gives an indication of breadth. A poor number here would tell us that a significant correction is likely. Other measures of breadth improved.

The VIX indicator improved and is giving a buy signal. Perhaps other indicators will also improve pushing the 50-indicator spread to Buy.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, watching indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Saturday, July 19, 2025

Michigan Sentiment ... Housing Starts ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

I hope to get back to regular posting next week, i.e., posting the blog around 6pm or so. (emphasis on "or so").

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ of Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was little changed from June, inching up about one index point to 61.8. While sentiment reached its highest value in five months, it remains a substantial 16% below December 2024 and is well below its historical average. Short-run business conditions improved about 8%, whereas expected personal finances fell back about 4%. Consumers are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy unless they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to worsen, for example if trade policy stabilizes for the foreseeable future. At this time, the interviews reveal little evidence that other policy developments, including the recent passage of the tax and spending bill, moved the needle much on consumer sentiment.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

HOUSING STARTS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hampered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed permits for future construction of single-family homes tumbled to more than a two-year low last month...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124239864.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at 6297.
-VIX declined about 0.7% to 16.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.42% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral at -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, watching indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

PBS Funding ... Retail Sales ... Jobless Claims ... Philly Fed ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

I’ll be posting late for the next few days. It’s a busy time.

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.

SENATE APPROVES CUT TO PBS (NPR)
“The Senate has approved the Trump administration's $9 billion rescission package aimed at clawing back money already allocated for public radio and television — a major step toward winding down nearly six decades of federal funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.” Story at...
https://www.npr.org/2025/07/17/nx-s1-5469904/npr-pbs-cuts-rescission-senate-vote
My cmt: Regular readers know that I dislike Criminal Trump. However, I am a staunch fan of the truth. During the conflicts and demonstrations regarding the Confederate statues in Charlottesville, VA, Trump said "You had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides". That is a true statement. There were good people on both sides. There were also racists, Nazis and other white supremacist organizations present. But Trump’s statement was true; it may have been imprudent, but that’s Trump’s calling card. To the issue at hand – Judy Woodruff (Anchor and managing editor of the PBS NewsHour NPR at the time) called Trump a rascist in her newscast covering the demonstrations. That’s where NPR has failed. “News” is reporting what Trump said. Putting a spin on the news by calling Trump a rascist was anti-Trump editorializing.

AND SPEAKING ABOUT THE TRUTH.... (Snopes Fact Check)
“Following the devastating and destructive flash flooding in central Texas on July 4, 2025, users online claimed that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration was ultimately to blame for the flood's 100 deaths due to staffing cuts at the National Weather Service [but according to Snopes, these claims were spurious]. The weather service issued a series of timely alerts: a flood watch early in the afternoon on July 3, a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. July 4, and a flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m. July 4, before any in-person reports of flooding had been received.” Story at...
Trump's NWS cuts were blamed for Texas flood deaths. Here are the facts
My cmt: There are plenty of Trump administration issues that are concerning; I find it silly that so many fools continue to lie.
"Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.” - Henry Ford

PHILLY FED (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a report on Thursday showing manufacturing activity in the region unexpectedly expanded overall in the month of July. The Philly Fed said its diffusion index for current general activity surged to a positive 15.9 in July from a negative 4.0 in June...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3554603/philly-fed-index-surges-to-five-month-high-in-july.aspx

RETAIL SALES (ABC News)
“Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in June...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/retail-sales-surprising-06-june-after-pullback-consumers-123829497

JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims for the week ending July 12 fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the fifth straight weekly decline and the fewest since mid-April.” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-applications-jobless-benefits-fall-straight-week-hitting-123829495

Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims all positive:
“This is not the recession you are looking for. You can go about your business. Move along.”

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6297.
-VIX declined about 4% to 16.52.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.443% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Neutral position at zero (Equal numbers of Bear indicators and Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims all positive; Trump isn’t firing Fed chair Powell; market internals looked good today; indicators are back to Neutral and today the S&P 500 made a new high. Investors are throwing off some of their worries suggesting markets can go higher.

3.9% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today. I’d prefer that the number was higher, but this is not low enough to give us a correction-warning.

The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE remained below 50%, so we still have a breadth concern.

The S&P 500 climbed above its lower trend line and on some charts (depending on the scale used) it was never below it. That’s a good reason for not acting too quickly when the Index breaks below its trendline and using more than charts for decision making.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, watching indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

PPI ... Industrial Production ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a Bearish position at -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.

While the 10-dMA of spread is now falling, the S&P 500 chart as not broken down too badly. It doesn’t look good, but it’s not a disaster either.

Wednesday, there was extremely high, unchanged-volume. I know, you’re tired of reading my standard note:
As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen and the indicators are trending down now. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.

The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE has dropped below 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues on the NYSE have fallen over the last 2 weeks. That’s the first shoe to drop on breadth. Also, there were only 48 issues that made new 52-week highs on the NYSE Wednesday. That’s a low number, too. We need to see a lot more when/if the S&P 500 makes a new high.

The S&P 500 has broken its lower trendline on successive days, but not by much. Today was an up-day. Let’s see if the Index can break higher tomorrow. I’m trying to avoid being whipsawed, so I’ll wait a little before I make a move with the trading portfolio although there are probably enough bad signs now to reduce stock holdings some.

BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, but leaning bearish. Further deterioration may cause me to reduce stock holdings back to around 50% depending on indicators.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)