Durable Goods ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

“Driving food costs.” -Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
My cmt: I think it is silly to deport migrants who are working and supporting the US economy. I’d give working illegals temporary Green cards on the spot and require them to register with ICE within 2 months or face deportation.   

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“When you want to help people, you tell them the truth. When you want to help yourself, you tell them what they want to hear.” - Thomas Sowell,
 
ICE DATA SHOWS LESS THAN 1% DEPORTED HAD MURDER CONVICTIONS (CBS NEWS)
“President Trump campaigned on a vow to round up the "worst of the worst" offenders among the criminals who were living illegally inside the United States. But CBS News has obtained deportation data that indicates the Trump administration's deportation push has ensnared many undocumented immigrants without violent criminal records...Only 1.8% or 2,355 of the total convictions against those criminals had to do with sex offenses. Another 1,628, or 1.2%, were for sexual assault. The number of homicide convictions totaled just 729, or 0.58%, and the number of convicted kidnappers were 536, or 0.42%. About 10,738 convictions were for assault, or 8.5%, the data showed... The CBS News-obtained document shows that 3,256 of the more than 100,000 people removed were known or suspected gang members or terrorists.” Story at...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-ice-data-shows-less-than-1-of-deportees-had-murder-convictions/
My Cmt: This was a biased piece whose mission was to convince its readers that ICE is spinning the data.  To me, the spin is by CBS News. The numbers look very high. The article notes that 1 in 200 (0.5%) have been convicted of murder. That is about 10,000 times greater than the murder rate in the US general population. (Per Google AI, in 2023, the U.S. homicide rate was approximately 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.) Even if we subtracted children from the US homicide rate, the rate of murder committed by illegals is frighteningly high when compared to the US overall rate. Looks like, the CBS reporter dislikes Trump and failed math.
 
DURABLE GOODS (Market Place via msn)
“Orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June, but most of the drop was tied to passenger planes, the Commerce Department said Friday. Outside of the transportation sector, orders rose 0.2%, the third straight monthly gain.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-orders-weaker-in-june-due-to-planes-business-investment-holding-up-despite-uncertainty/ar-AA1JhNsL?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6389.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.386% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed upward – a bullish sign.
 
The S&P 500 made a new high today; Breadth bounced above 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s a good sign. We hate to see new, all-time highs with collapsing breadth.
 
When the Index makes a new high, we always check the % of issues on the NYSE making new 52-week highs. Today’s number of 3.5% was well below the average for this stat, but it was high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.
 
However, there were other warnings signs. Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were overbought. That’s a worrying sign of a top, although I would need more top-indicator signals before I’d adjust the portfolio.
 
BOTTOM LINE
There were some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.