Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
LAWFARE AGAINST THE FED (WSJ)
“Agitators within the Trump Administration for weeks have flogged a Federal Reserve office renovation as a pretext to harass Chairman Jerome Powell. Now comes the lawfare, with a criminal perjury referral against Mr. Powell to the Department of Justice from a Member of Congress. How low can this crowd go?...The Congresswoman [Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, Florida] is trying to criminalize what at its core is an argument over monetary policy...Whatever Mr. Powell’s rhetorical inexactitude, it’s madness to create a new precedent for prosecuting officials for policy disagreements. Doing so is the road to the hyper-politicized monetary policy you’d expect in Argentina.” – The WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-anna-paulina-luna-lawfare-federal-reserve-donald-trump-be289db7?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhAs8QgY1cOuD9I9QmXUmXa9zjllk3mZA2Waw0geEpWASo6S0bYA2ztUc89s4M%3D&gaa_ts=688166d3&gaa_sig=_w-7ElN26PAMm542r6aLBDsVQbrhwB_xgJmSxtliYYcDL_VIpc7eqfbcyCtW1_-gBs5Qt6Wf7wQj312TJSNmUA%3D%3D
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (Yahoo Finance)
“Sales of previously-owned homes in the United States hit their lowest rate in nine months, according to industry data released Wednesday, as high home prices and mortgage rates weighed on the market. Existing home sales dropped by 2.7 percent last month...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-dip-141216401.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 6359.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.384% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to Bullish at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread reversed higher too – a bullish sign.
 
I noted yesterday (Tuesday), that only 2.8% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs suggesting a correction of greater than 10%. At today’s all-time high for the S&P 500, that warning was canceled; breadth broadened out and new-52-week-high numbers significantly improved. They are still below average, but good enough.
 
Do the indicators suggest correction fears are over? I’d say, “sort of.” A correction is coming – they always are – but for now, it appears that the correction has been postponed. Only 2 top indicators are warning of a top and they are not always reliable.
 
BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.