I hope to get back to regular posting next week, i.e., posting the blog around 6pm or so. (emphasis on "or so").
“Consumer sentiment was little changed from June, inching up about one index point to 61.8. While sentiment reached its highest value in five months, it remains a substantial 16% below December 2024 and is well below its historical average. Short-run business conditions improved about 8%, whereas expected personal finances fell back about 4%. Consumers are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy unless they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to worsen, for example if trade policy stabilizes for the foreseeable future. At this time, the interviews reveal little evidence that other policy developments, including the recent passage of the tax and spending bill, moved the needle much on consumer sentiment.” Report at...
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
“U.S. single-family homebuilding dropped to an 11-month low in June as high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty hampered home purchases, suggesting residential investment contracted again in the second quarter. The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed permits for future construction of single-family homes tumbled to more than a two-year low last month...”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-single-family-housing-starts-124239864.html
-Friday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at 6297.
-VIX declined about 0.7% to 16.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.42% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral at -2 (2 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.
I am neutral, watching indicators.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.