National Activity Index ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
DEMOCRATS ATTACK GIG WORKERS (WSJ)
“Senate Democrats are breathless about Americans losing government healthcare, but they’re dead set against expanding private coverage. They’re attacking a plan to help gig workers get benefits—merely because unions won’t get a cut... Independent contractors can’t unionize under the National Labor Relations Act, so unions and the Democrats they support want to outlaw contract work...This political opposition has deterred several gig companies from offering benefits. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has pledged more than $650 million a year to fund health insurance and paid time off if lawmakers would withdraw the threat of reclassifying the company’s drivers...If not for the opposition of lawmakers who claim to value healthcare, millions of workers could receive benefits without trading their freedom to get them.” – WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gig-workers-benefits-democrats-labor-unions-bill-cassidy-bernie-sanders-8ae57868?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAhy3e-OJ1wYVE1HfK-x3XVywgOj4uonNBaMRWkrJLiigVGEe_7cC9E-K_3IBwM%3D&gaa_ts=68817314&gaa_sig=P3RQWgV9tzAP77lhJsSNhf8_mv4wDKi1HOsIc4M4DN3ZOAwW2b_wL3m24eLqWJR6SBYRHIE2JHnnOZC1H0pKUA%3D%3D
 
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure... The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.10 in June from -0.16 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from May, and all four categories made negative contributions in June.” Story at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/24/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-june-2025
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions, though sluggish hiring is making it harder for many laid-off workers to land new opportunities...Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended July 19...” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-labor-market-steady-jobless-claims-three-month-low-2025-07-24/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6363.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 15.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.40% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators reversed and slipped to neutral at +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread also reversed down – a bearish sign.
 
The S&P 500 made a new high today, but breadth declined.  Breadth slipped below 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. In other words, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have fallen over the last 2 weeks. Other measures of breadth declined too - the number of new-52-week highs declined, but remained high enough so that a correction-warning was not issued.
 
Yesterday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time, so today’s weakness is not a surprise. 
 
One encouraging sign, the S&P 500 has not fallen below its lower trend line. Hopefully, that will continue and indicators will improve.
 
BOTTOM LINE
The correction has been postponed so I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.