... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
TRUMP’S BIG BEAUTIFUL BUDGET BUSTER (CNBC)
“President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which he signed into law this month, will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade, according to a new report published Monday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/21/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-is-projected-to-add-3point4-trillion-to-the-debt-budget-office-says.html
"I'm sorry, but I just can't stand it anymore...This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong” - Elon Musk
 
SCAM VICTIMS POINT FINGER AT BANKS (WSJ-Excerpt)
“For nearly 50 years, Anamarie Hurt trusted her husband, Craig, to manage their finances. And he did a good job of it, making investments that grew into a comfortable nest egg. Then Craig walked into a bank in Tulsa, Okla., and began moving their retirement funds into cryptocurrency investments that turned out to be fake. A year later, after losing more than $5 million, the Hurts’ life savings were gone.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/banks-pig-butchering-fight-fraud-92c06642?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAg1VHTGwyh4F3_CWqSPDiTm7s7OlHHG8H7FiF8JWsARUoQ0zbGQJxzTI-ucQAE%3D&gaa_ts=687ea3e5&gaa_sig=iRVYnAbJL7Sx3qGErQ9tPKXKMI_wOqw4Uaf6llJ-rmetJc5-apSl7JHSbvfgGWLXYilz9MGyu7Mv5ZOpQ8gPWw%3D%3D
My cmt: Many lessons here.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 6306.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.376% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained Neutral at +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained heading down – a bearish sign.
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. 3.4% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today.  I’d prefer that the number was higher, but this is not low enough to give us a correction-warning. The % of new-52-week highs is a very important stat when markets are making new all-time highs.  It gives an indication of breadth. A poor number here would tell us that a significant correction is likely. Other measures of breadth improved.
 
The VIX indicator improved and is giving a buy signal. Perhaps other indicators will also improve pushing the 50-indicator spread to Buy.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral, watching indicators.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.