… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
SILENCING WHISTLE BLOWERS (Daily Caller)
“Senior Minnesota state officials allegedly hired outside investigators to silence whistleblowers in an attempt to cover up widespread state social services fraud, a House committee report released Monday found.
A 200-page staff report by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform found that Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s state administration intimidated and retaliated against state employees who raised concerns about fraud, soliciting private investigators to reveal employees’ personal details.” Story at…
Tim Walz’s staff hired private investigators to silence fraud whistleblowers, committee report finds
The Daily Caller can be biased so here’s a copy of the report so you can read it for yourself. Report at…
https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/MN-Fraud-Final-Staff-Report.pdf
 
FOOD STAMP PROGRAM (WSJ – excerpt)
“The Trump Administration’s Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted recently that “we now have moved 4.3 million Americans off of the food stamp program,” known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. The press reaction is that Republicans in their big budget bill last year imposed onerous requirements and are depriving the vulnerable of grocery help.
But the food-stamp program is now returning to the levels of the bad old days of . . . 2019…Mark the food-stamp progress as a Trump win for the country that never would have happened if today’s Democrats were in power. 
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-food-stamp-rolls-declinehurray-c7b4e5e1
My cmt: This is probably the work of deficit hawks in Congress rather than Trump - I don’t give him much credit here. Bottom line: The pandemic is over - no need to keep the pandemic rules in place.
I’ve told this story before, but my wife was a teacher. She had two girls in her class who always sat together. They were doing virtually nothing in her class. She admonished them and suggested they would need an education to get a job. One of them laughed and said, "We don’t need to study – we just turned 18; we’re going on welfare." This just reinforces that welfare has become so inflated that it is now a career choice.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7406.
-VIX declined about 12% to 18.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.568% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
 

Today’s daily chart did not look too good. After the big open today, I had hoped to see a chart that closed higher. Worse, today’s new-lows outpaced new-highs and declining-volume exceeded advancing-volume. Those are not stats that build confidence for the bulls.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations was unchanged, a NEUTRAL sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Monday there was another Hindenburg Omen.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
 
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We’ve seen 10 in the last 20 trading-session. So, the Omens are a concern.
 
The Short-term Fosback Hi/Low Logic Index is also very close to issuing a sell signal. Both new-52-week highs and 52-week lows have been elevated.
“Under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows – but not both. As the Logic Index is the lesser of the two percentages, high readings are therefore difficult to achieve. When the Index attains a new high level, it indicates that the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence – many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising stock prices…” – Norman Fosback.
 
Breadth is also failing. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is bearish.
 
At this point, I’ll watch price action and we’ll see if indicators improve. I wrote that I may have bought too quickly on Friday – I still have that concern.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.