PPI … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader. Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream about.”
― Thomas Sowell
 
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a measure of final demand costs, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% on the month, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%.” Story at… 
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/11/producer-price-index-may-2026-.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid for the week ending June 6 rose by 4,000 to 229,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That’s the most since early February, before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, but still considered a healthy level.” Story at… 
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-a529f2c33e5048e79ffca8a07247a192
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.8% to 7394.
-VIX declined about 13% to 19.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.459% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -7 (7 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations declined, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers. I’d like to see the 10-dMA of the Indicator Spread turn higher – that would be a good bullish sign.
 
Breadth still remains weak. Over the last 10-days, more issues have gone down on the NYSE than have gone up. In addition, I have an indicator that compares breadth to the S&P 500; the Index is too far ahead of breadth so, it too is still bearish.
 
Thursday, the S&P 500 pulled within 2.8% of last week’s all-time high and is now 2.3% above its 50-dMA.
 
There were some improvements in internals when we look at the low yesterday compared to the prior low on Friday, 5 June. That can mark a bottom, but the improvements were not enough to signal a buy for me.  The catch is that small declines give small signals so we may have made a technical bottom yesterday.  Still, I suspect today’s move was Trump-driven since the bounce occurred after he announced a postponement of the bombing planned for Thursday night.
 
As I noted yesterday, since I think we are close to an end of this decline, I’ll probably wind up holding trading positions a bit longer. I can always sell the positions; take the tax-loss and replace them with other issues that may produce similar gains when indicators improve.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish/neutral in the short-term, but I suspect we are closer to a bottom than the top. We’ll see.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.