New Home Sales … S&P 500 Global Manufacturing PMI …. S&P 500 Global Services PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
“…as I’ve long argued, our [journalism] industry’s recovery of self-respect must begin with divorcing ourselves from a certain digital-age audience—the audience that doesn’t care whether a claim is true or false, only whether it meets an emotional need…In the age of online propaganda and artificial intelligence, the country urgently needs a place it can turn to for truth. This is a mission that a redeemed mainstream news business can give itself: Make America strong-minded again.” - Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Opinion Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/scott-pelley-delivers-for-the-ellisons-trump-and-cbs-b7d5c80c
 
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in May, weighed down by higher mortgage rates and prices, dampening hopes for a housing recovery this year after prolonged weakness…New home sales dropped 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 580,000 units last month, the lowest level ​since January…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-may-2026-06-24/
 
S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (Reuters)
“U.S. manufacturing activity rose again in June as companies ​preemptively placed new orders in anticipation of shortages and higher prices, but factory employment hit a six-year low, blamed on rising operating costs related to ‌the Middle East conflict.
S&P Global said its flash manufacturing PMI increased to 55.7 this month, the highest reading since May 2022…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-manufacturing-rises-front-loading-orders-factory-employment-tumbles-six-year-2026-06-23/
 
S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.” Commentary at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/06/03/sp-global-services-pmi-may-2026
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7358.
-VIX declined about 4% to 18.63. (The Options Boys don’t seem too worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.398% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“According to the 54 analysts' twelve-month price targets for NVIDIA, the average price target is $278.73. The highest price target for NVDA is $360.00, while the lowest price target for NVDA is $205.00.”- MarketBeat at… 
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/NVDA/forecast/
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 14 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
Today was somewhat odd. The S&P 50 was down slightly, but advancing issues outpaced decliners; new-highs were ahead of new-lows. The negative was on the volume side: declining-volume outpaced advancing-volume. We’re left with indicators that improved slightly.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations is essentially flat, also a NEUTRAL sign that is also important.
 
Note that today’s indicators have improved significantly compared to the 10 June low, so perhaps that divergence will portend good news for the markets.
 
The S&P 500 is only 0.1% above the 50-dMA. As previously noted, since the 50-dMA has not been significantly broken, we can’t be too concerned about the recent weakness. So far, it looks perfectly normal and not a sign that more trouble is certain. I’ll get more concerned if the 50-day does not hold.
 
Breadth indicators are mostly ok, so for now, we’ll have to wait for more information. An important piece of information would be if the Index drops below its 50-day.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral.                                                                                                 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.