“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 0.8 points to 89.4 (1985=100) in August, down from 90.2 in July…’Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,’ said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board…Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. Perceptions of the current labor market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline. Looking ahead, consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.’” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
“Prices for newly built homes have hit their lowest level in five years, as homebuilders continue to grapple with weak buyer demand, newly released data shows…Meanwhile, contract signings for newly built homes plunged 10.5% in July from the prior month…The Census Bureau's latest new residential construction report found that single-family housing starts in July were down 9.9% from June and 15.7% lower than a year earlier.” Story at…
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/new-home-prices-falling-sales-census-july-2026/
“Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased only slightly…Manufacturing firms remained relatively optimistic about the next six months, with the future indexes for shipments and new orders remaining firmly in positive territory and the employment expectations index rising to 20 in August from 15 in July.” Report at…
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/business_surveys/manufacturing
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7677.
-VIX slipped about 2.5% to 15.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.633% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I’m neutral, but watching closely. Indicators are not currently suggesting it’s time to panic; but according to some, the bond market is.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
