“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning. U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by 9.6 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 458.5 million barrels, the 10th consecutive week of a higher total than at any time in at least 80 years.” Story at…
http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/03/18/crude-price-slammed-on-another-huge-inventory-build/
The price of WTI Futures bounced up, but still closed below $45.
FED SIGNALS POSSIBLE MIDYEAR RATE HIKE (NY Times)
“The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to the verge of raising interest rates for the first time since the Great Recession, even as officials suggested that the Fed might not take that action until later this year…The march toward higher rates reflects both the Fed’s optimism that the economy no longer needs quite as much help from the central bank and a sense of fatigue about its long-running campaign to encourage faster economic growth.” Story at…
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-fomc-meeting.html?_r=0
MARKET REPORT
- Wednesday, the S&P 500 was down until 2PM, but rocketed up more than 1.5% after the Fed release. Overall the S&P 500 was UP about 1.2% to 2100 at the close.
-VIX was down about 11% to 13.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.92%. (The Bond Ghouls still don’t seem happy.)
PULLBACK OVER?
Finally, “Yes”, a clear signal, but the big move up means that tomorrow is likely to be down.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) shot up to 51% at the close Wednesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows, Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +139. (It was +32 Tuesday.). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +8. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 8-each day.
Internals TURNED POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs.
13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Wednesday the NTSM analysis remained BUY, but the important BUY signal was the day after the low in October. The VIX and PRICE indicators are positive. SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a retired guy. 
