“Retail sales fell sharply in February as harsh winter weather kept many consumers at home. Sales declined 0.6%, the Commerce Department said Thursday…Excluding autos and gasoline, sales fell 0.2%.” Story at…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/03/12/retail-sales-february/70177108/
Non store retail (internet sales) were up.
INITIAL CLAIMS DOWN (CNBC)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, offering fresh signs of a rapidly strengthening labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000 for the week ended March 7, the Labor Department said on Thursday.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102499075
BUSINESS INVENTORIES (Briefing.com)
“Business inventories were flat for a second consecutive month in January after a slight downward revision (from 0.1%) to the December data….Business inventories include wholesale inventories, manufacturing inventories, and retail inventories. Inventories are a component of GDP, and thus are of interest to economists, but the financial markets don't pay much attention…” Details and charts at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/businv.htm
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was UP about 1.3% to 2066.
-VIX was down about 9% to 15.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 2.11%.
PULLBACK OVER?
Thursday the S&P 500 bounced up from the lower trend line, Market Internals improved, but not dramatically, and VIX fell again. It looks like the pullback is over, but after the big up-day today; a down-day would be expected about 62% of the time to follow on Friday.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) leaped higher to 47% at the close Thursday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.) In a reversal, New-highs outpaced New-lows, Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +59. (It was -70 Wednesday.). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-5. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has DECLINED by 5-each day.
Internals turned neutral on the market and up volume (often an early mover in my basket of internals) turned positive.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday the NTSM analysis is HOLD, but very close to BUY. The PRICE and VIX indicators are positive. SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the
long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired
guy. 
