“The U.S. dollar’s eight-month long roller-coaster ride is about to head downhill, analysts at HSBC said Thursday. Strategists at the British bank have raised their euro forecasts, becoming the first major bank to predict a resurgent euro by the end of next year.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dollars-meteoric-rise-may-be-just-about-over-2015-03-19
If correct, this should bolster commodities and international stocks; will it cause some flight out of U.S. equities? Perhaps.
MARKET REPORT
-Friday, the S&P 500 was UP about 0.9% to 2108 at the close.
-VIX was down about 7% to 13.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.92%. (The Bond Ghouls still don’t seem happy.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) was up to 55% at the close Friday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows, Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +241. (It was +82 Thursday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +24. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 24-each day.
Internals SWITCHED BACK TO POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs.
13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis switched to HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive. VIX, SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 3.9% ahead of the S&P 500.
