“Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, to 320,000 from 313,000 the prior week…Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, ‘In one line: Another weather hit, probably.’" Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-mach-5-2015-3
US PRODUCTIVITY DECLINED (ABC News)
“U.S. worker productivity was even weaker than first thought from October through December while labor costs rose at a faster rate. Productivity declined at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, weaker than the 1.8 percent drop that was estimated a month ago, the Labor Department said Thursday. Labor costs rose at a 4.1 percent rate, faster than the 2.7 percent increase first estimated.” Story at…
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-productivity-falls-22-percent-rate-fourth-quarter-29407214
FACTORY ORDERS FALL UNEXPECTEDLY (CNBC)
“New orders for U.S. factory goods unexpectedly fell in January, posting their sixth straight monthly decline, a sign of weakness in the manufacturing sector. The Commerce Department said on Thursday new orders for manufactured goods slipped 0.2 percent after a revised 3.5 percent decline in December.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102480038
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was UP about 0.1% to 2101 (rounded).
-VIX was down about 1% to 14.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 2.11%.
PULLBACK? No firm signals yet, but we have seen a downward trend in internals.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 53% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +68. (It was +61 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread remained minus-6. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has DECLINED by 6-each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained BUY. The PRICE and VIX indicators are positive. VIX is not rising fast enough to set off alarm bells and today it dropped. UP-moves have been much larger than down recently and that has pushed PRICE to a positive indication. VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high. SENTIMENT is based on Wednesday’s data; if Sentiment goes negative Thursday night when the data is available, the NTSM system would be HOLD.
The BUY means that conditions today were good, but it’s not necessarily the best time to buy. The important BUY call was on 29 October, about 1% above the October bottom.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy.
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now. I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) and an EAFE based fund to get some international exposure because they are the only small-cap and international choices in my retirement account. (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500. The DWCPF is 2% ahead of the S&P 500 since 1 February.)
