“The Conference Board reported Tuesday morning that its consumer confidence index for the month of March rose to 101.3 from 98.8 in February.” Story at…
http://247wallst.com/economy/2015/03/31/consumer-confidence-leaps-in-february/
CHICAGO PMI – HUGE MISS
“For the second straight month, we have a terrible economic data point out of the Midwest. The March Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at 46.3, up only slightly from last month and way below expectations.”
ISM Chicago
Chart from and story at…http://www.businessinsider.com/chicago-pmi-march-31-2015-3
ATA TRUCKING TONNAGE FALLS – 24 March (American Trucking Association)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 3.1% in February…Compared with February 2014, the SA index increased 3%, although this was the smallest year-over-year gain since June of last year and below the 2014 annual increase of 3.7%...’The February drop in truck tonnage was not a surprise,’ said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Retail sales, manufacturing output and housing starts were all off during the month, so the tonnage decline fits with those indicators. The surprise would have been had tonnage increased with all of those sectors falling. Costello added that the winter weather that impacted a large portion of the country during February had a negative impact on truck tonnage as well as industries that drive tonnage…” Press release at…
http://www.trucking.org/article.aspx?uid=a1ffc881-35d8-466d-85c8-02bd0ef1ef40
Is it all weather related? I’m guessing yes; but I am watching the markets carefully.
BUFFET VALUATION INDICATOR (Advisor Perspectives)
“…the "Buffett Index"… suggest[s] that today's market is indeed at lofty valuations, now well above the housing-bubble peak in 2007. In fact, we can see…only four quarters (during the dot.com bubble) with higher valuations. The latest estimate is about half-way between two and three standard deviations above the mean valuation.” Story at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP.php
The Buffet valuation indicator is based on Stock Market Capitalization divided by GDP.
CEO of PAYCHECK
Paycheck is a company that provides Human Resource services to companies. The CEO was on CNBC this morning and he said that due to Obamacare and other federal regulations, his company is now seeing small companies with as few as 10 to 15 employees coming to Paycheck for HR services. The rules have become too much for these small companies to navigate on their own. This is shocking and sad.
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.9% to 2068 at the close.
-VIX was up about 5% to 15.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.92%.
There was big late-day-selling Tuesday and the S&P 500 dropped to near the lower trend line. Still, the index is only 2.3% off its highs. Today’s move was on high volume, but it is hard to know if that was just month end related portfolio tweaking or if it portends further downside ahead. Just because there was a successful test Friday, suggesting further upside, it is always possible that the market will turn-around and head down. I’m looking for upward movement from here, but time will tell.
CORRECTION OVER?
Yes; I still think so, but that will change if the market continues down. See Friday’s blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2015-03-30T17:06:00-04:00&max-results=7
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 54% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +76. (It was +128 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +4. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 4-each day.
Internals switched to POSITIVE on the market Tuesday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs.
13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained BUY. The PRICE and VIX indicators are positive. VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high. This indicates market are generally favorable, but the important BUY signal was shortly after the October low.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 4.6% ahead of the S&P 500.
