NON-FARM PAYROLLS (MarketWatch)
“The U.S. economy churned out a robust 295,000 jobs in February, reducing the nation’s unemployment rate to the lowest level in almost seven years and extending the best stretch of job creation since the mid-1990s.” Story and chart from MarketWatch at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-gains-295000-jobs-in-february-2015-03-06
“…Americans' average hourly wages rose a disappointing 0.1% in February compared to January…Average hourly earnings did rise 2% year-over-year in February, compared to 2.2% growth in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.” Story at…
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13070330/1/weak-hourly-wage-growth-number-is-misleading-economist.html
OIL TO $30? (Marketwatch)
“As the U.S. runs out of space to store its glut of crude-oil supplies, prices for the commodity could sink to as low as $30 a barrel. When storage is full, there is pressure on those holding oil in storage to “dump that inventory,” said Charles Perry, chief executive officer of energy-consulting firm Perry Management. So a space shortage could cause a drop in prices to the $30 to $40-per-barrel range, he said…Capacity for many of the storage locations will be at or near capacity in several weeks to a few months, Kerr estimates” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/storage-dearth-may-drive-oil-prices-to-30-2015-03-05
TECHNICIAN LOUIS YAMADA SAYS 12% RISE IN S&P 500 POSSIBLE (CNBC)
"If we make it through 2,130, then we have 2,350 out there," Yamada said. That would represent 12 percent upside from Thursday's levels. On the downside, the technician says it would not surprise her to see ‘a little bit of a further pullback,’ taking the market not quite halfway down to the 200-day moving average at 2,000.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102481394
MARKET REPORT (3:30PM or so)
-Friday, the S&P 500 was down close to 1.5% around 3:30 PM
-VIX was up about 9% around 3:30 PM
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was much higher to 2.24% a little after 3 PM..
Good news was bad news today. The employment report was good news, but it was not well received as stock futures sold off immediately and a down-day on the markets followed on the assumption that the Fed will raise rates sooner.
The S&P 500 was down more than 1.5% late in the day so we’ll see if that is enough to scare out the weak hands and bring in some buyers, either late today or on Monday. If not, more down-time ahead.
Statistically, tomorrow would be up about 62% of the time.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA) – 3PM data
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 47% at the close Friday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +5. (It was +68 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-15. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has DECLINED by 15-each day.
Internals switched to negative on the market, but are continuing to deteriorate.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis switched to HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive. UP-moves have been much larger than down recently and that has pushed PRICE to a positive indication. VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy.
MY RETIREMENT INVESTMENTS
My retirement account investments are shifted away from large cap stocks and include some international exposure. Breakdown follows: 25%-smaller caps (DWCPF); 10%-S&P500; 15%-international (EAFE); G-50% cash/mix - about 2% yield.
I am watching the EFA-ETF carefully (the “I”-Fund in the TSP) since there is dollar risk if the dollar continues to strengthen. More on exchange rate risks at…
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/advisor/files/2012/10/GWS-Currency-Matters-Final.jpg
