“In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level... Today's seasonally adjusted 291K came was close to the Investing.com forecast of 292K. The four-week moving average at 304,750 is now 25,750 above its 14-year interim low set in early November of last year.” Commentary at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS: MODERATE GROWTH (MarketWatch)
“The leading economic index rose 0.2% in February in a sign the U.S. economy should expand at a moderate rate in the months ahead, according to the Conference Board. ‘Widespread gains among the leading indicators continue to point to short-term growth,’ said Ataman Ozyildirim, an economist at the board. ‘However, easing in the LEI's six-month change suggests that we may be entering a period of more moderate expansion.’" Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-leading-indicators-rise-in-february-point-to-moderate-growth-2015-03-19
BIG FOUR (Industrial Production, Real Income, Employment, Real Sales) SAY THE ECONOMY IS AT STALL SPEED (Advisor perspectives)
“The overall picture of the US economy had been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter of2013-2014, as reflected in last year's GDP for Q1 of last year. In April we'll get our first peak at Q1 2015 GDP. Preliminary data suggests that we'll see renewed finger pointing at the weather. The Big Four average in recent months suggests that the economy remains near stall speed.” –Doug Short. Commentary at…
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/doug-short/big-four-economic-indicators-still-stall-speed
FED’S ARUOBA-DIEBOLD-SCOTTI BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX (Philadelphia Federal Reserve)
Note the recent dip below zero (contraction) at the right of the curve. The good news is that it isn’t an unusual occurrence and further; the curve is now headed up. This is a real-time indicator.
Chart from the Fed at…
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was Down about 0.4% to 2091 at the close.
-VIX was up about 1%near closing to 14.13 as of 4PM.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 1.98% but remained below 2% around 4PM. (The Bond Ghouls still don’t seem happy.)
PULLBACK OVER?
Finally, “Yes”, an all- clear signal, Wednesday.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA) (using 3PM data-busy day!)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) was down to 49% at the close Thursday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows, Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +82. (It was +139 Wednesday.). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 1-each day.
Internals TURNED NEUTRAL on the market, but only Breadth was negative.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs.
13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM (no change)
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained BUY, but the important BUY signal was the day after the low in October. The VIX and PRICE indicators are positive. SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the
S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 3.9% ahead of the
S&P 500.
