“Sales of previously-owned homes rose 1.2% in February as the tight supply of for-sale homes helped to push prices upward…Compared to one year earlier, February’s sales pace is up 4.7%.” Story at…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2015/03/23/existing-home-sales-up-1-2-in-february-on-tight-supply-as-prices-rise/
CRUDE UP ON WEAKER DOLLAR (Reuters)
“U.S. crude futures settled more than 1 percent higher on Monday, boosted by a falling dollar that outweighed pressure on prices from a global supply glut. ‘The dollar is under pressure, and we saw buyers coming into the market as a result,’ said Tradition Energy senior analyst Gene McGillian.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/23/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MJ02U20150323
GOLD
On 17 March Gold (GLD) retested its prior low of early November and has bounced up. It would appear that there are more than a few investors who think the dollar may weaken going forward. If they are wrong, a strong dollar will kill a gold trade so I am watching GLD carefully since I have a small position in GLD.
MARKET REPORT
-Monday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2104 at the close.
-VIX was up about 3% to 13.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped slightly to 1.91%. (The Bond Ghouls still don’t seem happy.)
Internals looked pretty good today for a down-day. I expect tomorrow will be up, absent bad news.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) was up to 56% at the close Monday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows, Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +222. (It was +241 Friday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +25. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 25-each day.
Internals REMAINED POSITIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs.
13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do
well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive. VIX, SENTIMENT and VOLUME indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 3.9% ahead of the S&P 500.
TRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I
