THE CLIMATE CRISIS HAS A COST AND IT’S $391 MILLION PER
DAY (CNBC)
“Damage from the global climate crisis has amounted to $391 million per day over the past two decades, a report showed. Wildfires, heatwaves, droughts and other extreme events attributable to climate change have incurred costs averaging over a hundred billion per year from 2000 to 2019, a recent study published in the journal Nature Communications showed.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/24/the-climate-crisis-has-a-price-and-its-391-million-a-day.html
My cmt: Interesting report, though just 2-years ago, the official UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported a completely different result! See the below article...
(GLOBAL WARMING) LET’S WORK FOR SCIENCE WITH INTEGRITY
(Forbes)
“Contrary to popular belief, even the official assessment reports – such as those by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the US government’s National Climate Assessments — indicate that “significant human-induced climate change would have negligible net economic impact on either the world or the US economies by the end of this century”... Story at...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2021/04/30/lets-work-for-science-with-integrity-steve-koonins-new-book-unsettled/?sh=91c46a72f383
My cmt: Who would guess that conclusion based on the constant barrage of global warming scare tactics by the media? Most reports refer to weather rather than climate.
“A judge in
Colorado has refused to dismiss a lawsuit aimed at blocking former President
Donald Trump from appearing on the state's 2024 presidential ballot over claims
he engaged in "insurrection" in the aftermath of the 2020 election.
CNN reported Friday that Colorado District Judge Sarah
Wallace, who was appointed to the position by the state's Democratic
Governor Jared Polis, blocked three separate attempts by both Trump's
legal team and the Colorado GOP to dismiss the lawsuit, which was filed by the
liberal watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.” Story
at...
Judge Hands Trump Loss: Refuses to Dismiss Lawsuit to Block Him From Colorado Ballot, Setting Up Unprecedented Trial (msn.com)
“While the Pentagon deploys a Thaad missile-defense
system to the Middle East to protect U.S. bases from the volley of missiles
fired by Iranian proxies, the Biden Administration has let the international
embargo on Iran’s missile program lapse... What new catastrophe would cause
President Biden to rethink his Iran policy? That’s the broader question given
that every escalation by Tehran seems to earn Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei another reprieve. The forbearance—none dare call it
appeasement—makes a larger war even more likely. The U.S. better send more
missile defenses to the region.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/so-much-for-the-embargo-on-irans-missiles-5a1ed31a
S&P GLOBAL COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“US companies signalled a marginal expansion in business activity during October, following broadly stagnant output seen in August and September. Manufacturers and service providers alike reported improved activity levels as the downturn in demand moderated. The rise in total output was the quickest for three months.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/800861276eb949fc9646061f8eb2ffb4
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 4248.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 18.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.819%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 11.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis). (47% retracement.)
-Trading Days since Top: 454-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
I have considered selling CSCO because it is no longer a momentum leader - but I am still holding it. INTC would probably have been my choice, but it has been under pressure due to restrictions on chip sales to China and competition from other chip makers.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much change in indicators today. The S&P 500 broke back above its 200-dMA and that is a good sign, and for the time being, it’s all that matters.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -12 to -11 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -8
to -26. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
SELL: VOLUME & VIX is bearish; PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral. I may be
following this indicator soon; but not yet. I am still watching price action
around the 200-dMA.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE HASN’T CHANGED:
I haven’t sold yet, but with recent tests of lows and a test of the 200-dMA, we must be concerned. I am still watching price action around the 200-dMA. About 3 weeks ago, I said that I didn’t expect the S&P 500 to fall much below 4200 – we’ll see.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“Damage from the global climate crisis has amounted to $391 million per day over the past two decades, a report showed. Wildfires, heatwaves, droughts and other extreme events attributable to climate change have incurred costs averaging over a hundred billion per year from 2000 to 2019, a recent study published in the journal Nature Communications showed.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/24/the-climate-crisis-has-a-price-and-its-391-million-a-day.html
My cmt: Interesting report, though just 2-years ago, the official UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported a completely different result! See the below article...
“Contrary to popular belief, even the official assessment reports – such as those by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the US government’s National Climate Assessments — indicate that “significant human-induced climate change would have negligible net economic impact on either the world or the US economies by the end of this century”... Story at...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2021/04/30/lets-work-for-science-with-integrity-steve-koonins-new-book-unsettled/?sh=91c46a72f383
My cmt: Who would guess that conclusion based on the constant barrage of global warming scare tactics by the media? Most reports refer to weather rather than climate.
Judge Hands Trump Loss: Refuses to Dismiss Lawsuit to Block Him From Colorado Ballot, Setting Up Unprecedented Trial (msn.com)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/so-much-for-the-embargo-on-irans-missiles-5a1ed31a
“US companies signalled a marginal expansion in business activity during October, following broadly stagnant output seen in August and September. Manufacturers and service providers alike reported improved activity levels as the downturn in demand moderated. The rise in total output was the quickest for three months.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/800861276eb949fc9646061f8eb2ffb4
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 4248.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 18.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.819%.
-Drop from Top: 11.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis). (47% retracement.)
-Trading Days since Top: 454-days.
The S&P 500 is 0.3% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
I have considered selling CSCO because it is no longer a momentum leader - but I am still holding it. INTC would probably have been my choice, but it has been under pressure due to restrictions on chip sales to China and competition from other chip makers.
Not much change in indicators today. The S&P 500 broke back above its 200-dMA and that is a good sign, and for the time being, it’s all that matters.
I haven’t sold yet, but with recent tests of lows and a test of the 200-dMA, we must be concerned. I am still watching price action around the 200-dMA. About 3 weeks ago, I said that I didn’t expect the S&P 500 to fall much below 4200 – we’ll see.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
