Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Semiconductor Sales ... Empire State Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
RETAIL SALES (CNBC)
“Consumers showed surprising strength in September,
boosting retail sales well above expectations despite high interest rates and
worries over a weakening economy. Retail sales rose 0.7% on the month, well
above the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/retail-sales-september-2023-.html
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Floor Daily)
“Industrial production increased 0.3% in September and
advanced at an annual rate of 2.5% in Q3, according to the Federal Reserve.”
Story at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/industrial-production-rose-03-in-september-
RESTRICTIONS ON SEMICONDUCTOR SALES (ts2)
“The U.S. announced on Tuesday that it will be expanding
restrictions on semiconductor sales to China, which has put pressure on chip
stocks. According to reports, the new rules will make it more difficult for
China to purchase advanced semiconductors, including chips used for artificial
intelligence.” Story at...
https://ts2.space/en/u-s-expands-restrictions-on-semiconductor-sales-to-china-chip-stocks-under-pressure/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged at 4373.
-VIX rose about 4% to 17.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.843%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 448-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.6%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
I may sell CISCO soon.
It is no longer a momentum leader. INTC would probably be my choice, but
I must admit I don’t get the interest in Intel, other than momentum. Today
there was uncertainty in INTEL due to the US restrictions on some chips that
were previously going to China.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The story of the day was that the Russell 2000 blew away
the other Indices. The Russell was up
over 1.2% while the larger cap S&P 500 finished flat on the day. Small stocks
usually lead coming off a bottom so that is a good sign even if the S&P 500
refused to play along.
The morning was bullish and 80% of volume on the NYSE was
up-volume. That didn’t hold though. Up-volume
was about 73% of the total for the day and the S&P 500 index faded in the
afternoon, however, it did finish essentially even.
It looks like the correction is over, but we’re still
waiting to see if the Index can break above its 50-dMA. The Geo-Political
situation is a worry and we need to keep watch on the markets to gauge their
reaction.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +3 to +9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -9 to +10.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral. VOLUME is bullish along with
the New-high/new-low reversal from
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21
October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that
a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
It looks like we have already seen the bottom. There are
indications that the bottom was Wednesday at 4230 on the S&P 500 and I
think we got confirmation on 9 & 10 October.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
