“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“I will not tiptoe around this simple fact: What Hamas
did is evil and there is no defense for terrorism. This shouldn’t be hard.
Sadly, too many people in elite academia have been so weakened by their moral
confusion that, when they see videos of raped women, hear of a beheaded baby,
or learn of a grandmother murdered in her home, the first reaction of some is
to ‘provide context’ and try to blame the raped women, beheaded baby, or the
murdered grandmother. In other grotesque cases, they express simple support for
the terrorists.
This thinking isn’t just wrong, it’s sickening. It’s dehumanizing. It is beneath people called to educate our next generation of Americans... When evil raises its head, as it has in recent days, it is up to men and women of conscience and courage to draw strength from truth and commit ourselves to the work of building something better—to the work of pursuing justice and pursuing peace. That is what we aim to do through education, compassion, and truth here at the University of Florida.” - Ben Sasse, President, University of Florida
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING (NY Fed)
“Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the October survey. The general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while twenty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened...” Story at...
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/Empire/empire2023/ESMS_202310.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=EEEDAF32F2202FEC2F636D62B8041A81
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4374.
-VIX fell about 11% to 17.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.698%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 448-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.6% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
I may sell Cisco soon. It is no longer a momentum leader. Intel would probably be my choice to replace it, but I must admit I don't get the interest in INTC other than momentum.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Concerns I had that the war between Israel and Palestine might cause some trouble in the markets has been unfounded, so far. Apparently, investors are not concerned that the conflict will expand.
It was good to see breadth improve today. We also saw new-high data signaling “correction
over,” at least for the recent 8% dip that started in the end of July. Short-term
momentum is bullish and the 5-10-20 Timer system improved to Neutral.
It looks like the correction is over, but we’re still
waiting to see if the Index can break above its 50-dMA. The Geo-Political
situation is a worry and we need to keep watch on the markets to gauge their
reaction.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -6 to +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -20 to -9.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE, VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21
October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that
a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
It looks like we have already seen the bottom. There are
indications that the bottom was Wednesday at 4230 on the S&P 500 and I
think we got confirmation on 9 & 10 October.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
This thinking isn’t just wrong, it’s sickening. It’s dehumanizing. It is beneath people called to educate our next generation of Americans... When evil raises its head, as it has in recent days, it is up to men and women of conscience and courage to draw strength from truth and commit ourselves to the work of building something better—to the work of pursuing justice and pursuing peace. That is what we aim to do through education, compassion, and truth here at the University of Florida.” - Ben Sasse, President, University of Florida
“Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the October survey. The general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. Twenty-four percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while twenty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened...” Story at...
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/Empire/empire2023/ESMS_202310.pdf?sc_lang=en&hash=EEEDAF32F2202FEC2F636D62B8041A81
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 4374.
-VIX fell about 11% to 17.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.698%.
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 448-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.6% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500 Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
Concerns I had that the war between Israel and Palestine might cause some trouble in the markets has been unfounded, so far. Apparently, investors are not concerned that the conflict will expand.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
