CPI ... Jobless Claims ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“News reports that Hamas killed babies, some decapitated,
as the death toll passed 1000.” – Michael Ramirez from...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“A mob of Islamist Arabs incited by Jew-hatred entered
the town and killed as many Jews as they could find. They went door to door,
broke into the homes of their victims, and slaughtered innocent men, women and
children. These gangs raped, mutilated and tortured them while screaming “Kill
the Jews!” That was 94 years ago, on Saturday, Aug. 24, 1929, in Hebron...There
was no state of Israel in 1929. There were no “occupied” territories, no
“settlers.” There was no “blockade.” No security fence, no checkpoints,
nothing. If the excuses of today’s murderers did not exist at that time, what
did exist? A deep, maniacal, murderous and utterly destructive hatred of
Jews—the same essential factor operating today, to which all other excuses are
subservient...
...Israel expelled its own population from Gaza in 2005
so that Palestinian Arabs could begin building their own state. They instead
chose Hamas.” WSJ Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-moral-duty-to-destroy-hamas-ba626a41
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, a closely followed inflation
gauge, increased 0.4% on the month and 3.7% from a year ago, according to a Labor
Department report Thursday. That compared with respective Dow
Jones estimates of 0.3% and 3.6%...Excluding volatile food and energy prices,
the so-called core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4.1% on a 12-month
basis, both exactly in line with expectations.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/12/cpi-september-2023.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment
benefits was unchanged last week, remaining at historically low levels in another
sign that the U.S. job market remains strong in the face of higher interest
rates. Unemployment claims stayed at 209,000 for the week ending Oct. 7...”
Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-jobless-claims-remain-historically-low-209000-sign-103921749
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 10.2 million barrels from the
previous week. At 424.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 4349.
-VIX rose about 4% to 16.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.697%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 9.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 446-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.3%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
CSCO – added 9/5.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today, the CPI was somewhat mixed, but the important Core
CPI was in line with expectations. Did investors
sell the news or were they playing the odds that there would be a down day
after 4 straight up-days on the S&P 500?
It doesn’t really matter and we’ll never know anyway. Signals are going
up. For example, buying pressure minus selling pressure turned up today; that’s
a good sign. I think we’ll see a lot more Bullish signs on the Friday summary run
down of indicators.
Thursday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. Even if that is true, I don’t know how to interpret this signal
now. Are markets turning down after four days up, or are they turning up after
the recent correction? To further confuse things, today was a Bearish outside
reversal day.
I still think the correction is over, but we’re still waiting
to see if the Index can break above its 50-dMA.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from +7 to zero (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -31
to -22. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is bearish; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21
October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that
a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
It looks like we have already seen the bottom. There are
indications that the bottom was Wednesday at 4230 on the S&P 500 and I
think we got confirmation on 9 & 10 October.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
