GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Durable Goods ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
GDP (Yahoo Finance)
“...the second and final revision in the books at +3.0%. This more than doubles the weak +1.4% made in Q1, and 40 basis points (bps) below the +3.4% from Q4 of 2023...”
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“Initial Jobless Claims dipped to +218K last week, below the +223K expected and the upwardly revised +222K, and the lowest level of new weekly jobless claims from mid-May...”
DURABLE GOODS (Yahoo Finance)
“Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for August came in at 0.0% [no change], better than the -3.0% expected on this rather volatile set of data.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-218k-q2-gdp-142100449.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 572.
-VIX declined about 0.3% to 15.37. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.792% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 8 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) slipped to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Once more with feeling...tomorrow the PCE is announced, the Fed’s favorite inflation data. Data dependent? Let’s see what the data shows.
 
The Advance /Decline ratio had been overbought for the last week. Today it moved to a neutral indication, but other indicators stepped into the bearish role. RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) is overbought – not to worry, Bollinger Bands are not. New-high/New-low numbers are getting too bullish and that’s a bearish sign. All in all though, these are issues to watch, but the indicators remain on the bullish side so I am not too worried.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.