Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
PCE PRICES (CNBC)
“The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/pce-inflation-august-2024.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 5738.
-VIX rose about 10% to 16.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.751% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 4 Bear-sign and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) came in better than expected. Advancers outpaced decliners by a lot; advancing-volume was more than twice declining-volume; there were 228 new-highs and only 5 new-lows. The S&P 500 was down; VIX was up? What am I missing?
Only one of my Top Indicators, a subset of indicators, is
giving a top signal. That is RSI. Relative Strength measures the size of
up-moves vs. all-moves on a 14-day moving average basis and presents the result
as a percentile. For example; if the RSI is 85, it means that the size of
up-moves are in the 85th percentile when compared to all moves over the 14-day
period. If ALL moves had been up, RSI would be 100 – a definite short term
sell indicator. For my purposes, 30 is oversold (suggesting a turn-around to
the upside) and 80 is overbought. If the up-moves and down-moves are equal in
size over the 14-day period, RSI would be 50.
Friday, RSI was 87, an overbought signal. I use this indicator with Bollinger
Bands. They are elevated, but not yet
overbought, so that’s good news for the bulls.
No top yet.
Indicators improved handily and that’s a good sign too.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/27/pce-inflation-august-2024.html
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 5738.
-VIX rose about 10% to 16.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.751% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 4 Bear-sign and 16-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) came in better than expected. Advancers outpaced decliners by a lot; advancing-volume was more than twice declining-volume; there were 228 new-highs and only 5 new-lows. The S&P 500 was down; VIX was up? What am I missing?
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
