... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

Political commentary from Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5703.
-VIX declined about 1% to 16.15. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.741% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a super BULL position at 1 Bear-sign and 22-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) increased to +21 (21 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, issuing a buy signal.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There was extremely high volume today (about double the norm) since today was an Options expiration day. Sometimes that can mess with some of the indicators, but that didn’t seem to be an issue today.
 
The Bull minus Bear spread for the 50-indicators is +21. That is the highest I have seen in the 2-years of records that I have.  
 
I added a bearish triangle to my Summary of 50-Indicators chart (shown in red on the right side of the chart).  My point is to show a bullish breakout. This pattern has been violated as the Index has broken above the upper boundary of the triangle.
 
Momentum looks strong across nearly all the ETF’s we track.
 
As noted yesterday: Of the 50-indicators I track, my only bearish indicator is the Advance/Decline Ratio. It is now overbought. This tends to be a very short-term signal; it warns at tops. It also gives a false signal after a bottom when investors are buying due to fear-of-missing-out. That’s what we have now. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.