Leading Economic Indicators ... Philly Fed ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Applications for US unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since May, indicating the job market remains healthy despite a slowdown in hiring. Initial claims decreased by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended Sept. 14...” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-19/applications-for-us-jobless-benefits-fall-to-a-four-month-low
 
PHILLY FED (rttnews)
“A reading on Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity returned to positive territory in the month of September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed in a report released on Thursday... The diffusion index for current general activity jumped to a positive 1.7 in September from a negative 7.0 in August, with a positive reading indicating growth.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3476245/philly-fed-index-indicates-return-to-growth-in-september.aspx
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2% in August 2024 to 100.2 (2016=100) ... The Conference Board expects US real GDP growth to lose momentum in the second half of this year as higher prices, elevated interest rates, and mounting debt erode domestic demand. However, in the Fed’s September 2024 Summary of Economic Projections, policymakers suggested 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which should lower borrowing costs and support stronger economic activity in 2025.” Report at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.7% to 5714, a new all-time high.
-VIX fell about 10% to 16.33. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.719% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
UWM – added 7/15.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16 & added more 9/19.
SPY – added 9/19.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a super BULL position at 1 Bear-sign and 21-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained +20 (20 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward. This is a buy signal.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Looks like a bullish take-off to me. The only worries we have now are: The election; world-war III; earnings; recession; and a few more. Hopefully Mr. Market will warn us in advance if some of these other worries become more strident. For now, markets look good. Indicators remain very bullish.
 
Thursday was a Follow-thru Day that is another indicator that signals an end to the weakness.
 
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.  While this suggests a down-day tomorrow, it is not in my basket of 50-indicators.
 
Of the 50-indicators I track, my only bearish indicator is the Advance/Decline Ratio. It is now overbought. This tends to be a very short-term signal, but there may still be enough bullish momentum to send markets higher again Friday.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish and getting more “over-invested.”
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.