Monday, September 23, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
I always wondered...
HOW PEDIATRICIANS CREATED THE PEANUT ALLERY EPIDEMIC (WSJ)
“The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) wanted to respond to public concern by telling parents what they should do to protect their kids from peanut allergies. There was just one problem: Doctors didn’t actually know what precautions, if any, parents should take. Rather than admit that, in the year 2000 the AAP issued a recommendation for children 0 to 3 years old and pregnant and lactating mothers to avoid all peanuts...
...[Dr. Gideon Lack, a pediatric allergist and immunologist in London] was giving a lecture in Israel on allergies and asked the roughly 200 pediatricians in the audience, “How many of you are seeing kids with a peanut allergy?” Only two or three raised their hands. Back in London, nearly every pediatrician had raised their hand to the same question.
Startled by the discrepancy, he had a eureka moment. Many Israeli infants are fed a peanut-based food called Bamba. To Lack, this was no coincidence, and he quickly assembled researchers in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem to launch a formal study. It found that Jewish children in Israel had one-tenth the rate of peanut allergies compared with Jewish children in the U.K., suggesting that genetic predisposition was not responsible, as the medical establishment had assumed.
Lack and his Israeli colleagues titled their paper “Early Consumption of Peanuts in Infancy Is Associated with a Low Prevalence of Peanut Allergy.” – Mary Markary, surgeon and public health researcher at Johns Hopkins University. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/health/how-pediatricians-created-the-peanut-allergy-epidemic-952831c4
Dr. Markary has a book out, “Blind Spots: When Medicine Gets It Wrong, and What It Means for Our Health.”
 
CONTRARY TO THE MEDIA MYTH, U.S. URBAN CRIME RATES ARE UP (WSJ)
“The new findings were released this month by the National Crime Victimization Survey. Run by the Bureau of Justice Statistics and administered by the Census Bureau, the NCVS dates to the Nixon administration and is one of the largest federal surveys on any topic. It asks some 230,000 U.S. residents annually whether they’ve been the victims of crimes. It then asks about the nature of the crime, whether it was reported to the police, the demographics of the perpetrator and other particulars.
The NCVS report for 2023 finds no statistically significant evidence that violent crime or property crime is dropping in America. Excluding simple assault—the type of violent crime least likely to be charged as a felony—the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019, the last year before the defund-the-police movement swept the country.” Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/contrary-to-media-myth-u-s-urban-crime-rates-are-up-violence-cities-9ce714f6?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
My cmt: So ABC’s “Fact Check” during the Presidential debate was incorrect. Crime Rates are up, suggesting that ABC is not only biased, but incompetent.
 
“The House on Friday voted, 215-191, to overturn the Environmental Protection Agency’s vehicle emissions rule, with eight Democrats joining Republicans. Kamala Harris says she doesn’t support an electric vehicle mandate, but that’s what the Biden EPA rule effectively is.” – Editorial Board, WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-join-house-republicans-vote-against-vehicle-emissions-rule-epa-electric-vehicles-31379282?mod=editorials_article_pos5
My cmt: I commented against these rules, but my experience has been that when an agency proposes a rule, the cake is already baked. Negative comments, even those by industry professionals, have little effect. That is why the Supreme Court’s ruling that rolls back the Chevron Decision is so important. It will appropriately reduce Executive Branch power.  My feeling has always been that a decision to ban internal combustion engines (ICE in the vernacular) is beyond the power of the Executive Branch. This should be a decision to be made by the Congress, elected officials who are representatives of the people, never the Executive.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5703.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.89. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.751% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 2 Bear-sign and 20-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) decreased to +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Last week (19 September) the S&P 50 made a new all-time high. 14.8% of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs.  That’s a very good number since the average of new-highs at an all-time high is only about 7%.  This demonstrates a broad advance with healthy breadth, buy but the number can be misleading at times. For example, at the top of the recent 10% correction in July, nearly 15% of issues on the NYSE also made new, 52-week highs. This time is different, though.  The July top had been preceded by poor breadth on a number of new all-time highs. In those instances, only 2 to 5% of issues on the NYSE were making new-highs when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high and that signaled trouble for the markets. So far, markets appear to be in good shape.
 
The Advance/Decline Ratio is again overbought. This tends to be a very short-term signal. 8 out of the last 10 days have been up-days. We may expect a down-day tomorrow – markets don’t go up in a straight line.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.