New Home Sales ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Vice President Kamala Harris is promising to end the filibuster in order to pass legislation codifying Roe v. Wade's abortion protections into law. That may meet a hurdle if Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana) has anything to say about it.
Semafor reported Tuesday that Tester has made it clear he would oppose Harris' efforts to do away with the filibuster outright if he wins another six-year term this November.” Story at...
Senate Democrat in must-win state comes out against Kamala Harris’ plan to end filibuster (msn.com)
My cmt: The Tenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states that the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people. Abortion is not covered in the Constitution, so why would Harris think that the Federal Government has the power to codify Roe vs Wade? The Supreme Court already ruled on the issue and specifically stated the States have the authority.  Apparently, she plans to stack the Court too.
 
“Shame on her [VP Harris] ...She knows the filibuster is the Holy Grail of democracy. It's the only thing that keeps us talking and working together. If she gets rid of that, then this would be the House [of Representatives] on steroids... I think that basically can destroy our country and my country is more important to me than any one person or any one person's ideology... I think it's the most horrible thing.” – Senator Joe Manchin, Independent, West Virginia.
 
NEW HOME SALES (NY Post)
“Sales of new US single-family homes fell in August, but declining mortgage rates and house prices could stimulate demand in the months ahead. New home sales dropped 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 716,00 units last month...Sales rose 9.8% on a year-on-year basis in August.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2024/09/25/business/new-home-sales-prices-dropped-ahead-of-fed-rate-cut/
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 413.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 572.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 15.41. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.781% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 7 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) slipped to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Advance/Decline Ratio remains overbought, so we could easily see another pause in the S&P 500 advance. This tends to be a very short-term signal so it is not a signal to worry about. Overall, indicators look good even though the number of bullish indicators was down Wednesday.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

  
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.