Consumer Confidence ... Richmond FED Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 


“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“At this point, the racism is obvious. How else does it make sense that 48 percent of registered voters in last week’s Fox News poll say they have no problem putting Donald Trump back in the White House?” Story at...
Opinion: Trump is at 48 percent. How could this be possible but for widespread racism? (msn.com)
My cmt: What BS.  Trump was doing at least as well against an Old White Guy before Biden left the race, so how could it be racism? Now, the public is faced with the two worst candidates in United States history – a criminal or a socialist. I can appreciate that a lot of voters will choose the criminal.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board via prnewswire)
"Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-fell-in-september-302257129.html
 
RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING (forexlive)

From...
https://www.forexlive.com/news/richmond-fed-composite-index-for-september-18-vs-13-estimate-20240924/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5733.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.39. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.732% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 2 Bear-sign and 20-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained +18 (18 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today the S&P 50 made another new all-time high. 9% of all issues on the NYSE made new 52-week, new-highs.  That’s a good number since the average of new-highs at an all-time high is about 7%.  This demonstrates a broad advance with healthy breadth. It suggests that if there was a correction (and I’m not predicting one), it is likely to be less than 10%.
 
Same as yesterday: The Advance/Decline Ratio remains overbought. This tends to be a very short-term signal. 8 out of the last 10 days have been up-days. We may expect a down-day tomorrow – markets don’t go up in a straight line; but that wasn’t true Tuesday.  Will Wednesday continue higher? The odds are against it, but as I often point out, Mr. Market doesn’t pay attention to my blog. As the Short-sellers like to say, “The Markets can remain overbought longer than you can remain solvent.”
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.