Business Optimism … Home Sales … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
A FACEBOOK POST – THE DEAL WITH PUTIN
“A Republican is now leading the charge to stop Donald Trump's fuel deal with Vladimir Putin — and he's not asking leadership for permission.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, says he'll introduce the Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act to bar U.S. purchases of Russian oil. To get around Speaker Mike Johnson, he's turning to a discharge petition — the maneuver that forces a floor vote the moment 218 members sign on, no matter what GOP leaders want. "It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly," he wrote. Fellow Republican Rep. Don Bacon has already agreed to sign.
Here's the deal they're trying to stop. Trump announced Friday that Russia would immediately ship more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets, pitching it as a way to bring fuel prices down. Energy analysts doubt it will move prices much — but it could funnel fresh cash straight into Putin's war machine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the arrangement neither fair nor honest and said it amounts to a gift to Putin. Trump's answer was to suggest Ukraine should replace Zelensky altogether.
This isn't the first time Fitzpatrick and Bacon have broken ranks — earlier this year they forced a House vote on Ukraine aid and Russia sanctions, and it passed. They now join a growing group of Republicans, including former VP Mike Pence, openly rejecting a deal that rewards the man still bombing Ukrainian cities.
The question now is simple: will 218 members put country over party?” From Democracy Daily,
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61591287524334
 
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“Small business optimism stayed near the long-term average in September as Main Street owners remain uncertain about business conditions,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners are proceeding with caution as they interpret how rising costs, interest rates, and the difficulty in finding qualified employees are impacting their business.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-uncertainty-grows-and-optimism-fades-slightly-on-main-street-in-september/
 
EXISITING HOME SALES (NAR)
"Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month and decreased by 2.2% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS^® Existing-Home Sales report…’Despite the small monthly gain on a seasonally adjusted basis, August and September marked the two slowest months for home sales this year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home. Higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power. Home sellers need to be realistic about local market conditions, which could require price discounts and other incentives to attract buyers,’ Yun said.” Report at…
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-increased-1-5-in-september-according-to-nar-report
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 2pts to 7805.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 15.27.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.215% (compared to about this time Friday).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +4 to +6 (6 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
As of today, more than half of the issues on the NYSE have been advancing. That’s a good sign. We need to see breadth continue to advance. The McClellan Oscillator, another breadth indicator, remained Bullish.

The Bearish Wedge pattern remains. We need to see the S&P 500 break thru the upper, horizontal, red-line in the above chart to feel more comfortable. The chart doesn’t predict a bearish failure – that would occur if the Index falls below the lower trendline - so we are waiting to see where the price action goes. Price trumps indicators.
  
We continue to watch indicators, but price is more important now.  The S&P 500 will break out of its rising wedge; will it be higher of lower? Indicators are hinting perhaps higher, but the signal is not very strong.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.