… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP IS ORDERING THE SLOWDOWN (CNBC)
“SpaceX’s Starlink internet system continues to be throttled in Ukraine as the stakes rise for the war-torn country, Ukrainian officials and a national security expert said Friday. ‘Every day matters for Ukraine, because every Ukrainian life matters,’ wrote Denys Sienik, Ukraine’s deputy ambassador to the U.S., in a Friday post on X.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/ukraine-says-starlink-restrictions-remain-despite-trump-assurances.html
My cmt: Since Ukraine continued to attack refineries, Trump is withholding internet speeds that Ukraine needs for self-defense and offensive capability. Yes, I know, Musk controls the technology thru his company; but Musk is not doing this on his own. Trump thinks that fuel from Russia will lower gas prices and will help in the mid-term election. He needs the House to be Republican or he will get impeached again.
 
FRACTURING MARKET (MarketWatch)
“The artificial-intelligence trade is on the ropes. CNN’s “Fear & Greed” index is screaming fear, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note just clinched its biggest daily drop since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
All the drama was enough to send the S&P 500 down by more than 1% on Thursday, its worst showing since July. Yet at the same time, more than 300 individual S&P 500 stocks finished higher. Investors haven’t seen such a dramatic divergence between the index and its member stocks since January 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data…
…Rather than pulling their money from the market, investors are increasingly shuffling money from one pocket to the other, said Farzin Azarm, a managing director of equities trading at Mizuho Americas….
…Others took a more downbeat view. The divergence between index performance and stock-market breadth has reached extreme levels in 2026, as BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky pointed out in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.
The S&P 500 has moved in the opposite direction from most of its members during more than 30% of all trading days in 2026, by far the most in any calendar year going back to 1996. If the past is any guide, extreme dispersion among the index’s constituents can only continue for so long.
“At some point, we believe the constant rotation stops and we see a higher-correlation selloff,” Krinsky wrote.” Story at…
The US stock market is fracturing into two camps, and it’s leaving investors with a brutal case of whiplash
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 0.5% to 7624.
-VIX rose about 2% to 19.45.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.999% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 6 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -10 (10 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
We saw consecutive closes below the lower trend line at the 50-dMA, but I have not sold yet.
 
The S&P 500 is now at a level that is no higher than it was in early June. This is more of an oddity than any kind of signal of what’s to come. It shows once again that the markets have been in a long, sideways correction. The most recent, prior-low in this malaise was when the S&P 500 closed near the 100-dMA in mid-September. The S&P 500 is now about 0.25% above the 100-day. The 100-day is often a low on small declines. 
 
The S&P 500 is only 2.5% below its all-time high, so I haven’t been inclined to cut stock holdings. Timing small declines is not a winning game and indicators have not been weak enough to get me out of the market.
 
The decline in semi-conductors took a break today as the SOXX was up 0.5%. If the decline ends it is likely that other stocks will end their slide.
 
Was today a bottom? Probably not; volume was down, but other Internals were weak. There is a caveat on this prediction. Small declines give small signals. Volumes were lower today and sometimes that is enough to suggest an end to selling
 
Indicators declined today. I think the 100-dMA is the line in the sand.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but still concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.