… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP STRIKES DEAL FOR RUSSIAN DIESEL (WSJ)
“President Trump said Friday his administration reached an agreement for Russia to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel, marking a major policy shift that eases pressure on Moscow over its war with Ukraine in hopes of lowering domestic fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-strikes-deal-with-putin-for-russian-diesel-15751436
 
But just a few months ago…
TRUMP WANTED INDIA OFF RUSSIAN OIL (CNN – 10 Mar 2026)
“For much of last year, Washington sought to starve Moscow’s war machine of cash, in part by removing one of its most loyal customers: India.
Under President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign, the White House slapped high tariffs on many of New Delhi’s exports and sanctioned two of the Kremlin’s largest oil firms. The strategy appeared to be working. While India didn’t quit its Russian oil habit entirely, it sharply reduced its purchases in favor of supplies from the Middle East.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/10/india/india-russia-oil-middle-east-war-intl-hnk
 
“This agreement with a murdering dictator is a stain on our nation’s character, an insult to Lindsey Graham’s memory, & directly contrary to Congress’s intent in our bipartisan sanctions bill.” - U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal, (D) Connecticut.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7807.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.21.
-Bond markets were closed for Columbus Day.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +3 to +4 (4 More Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations rose, a BULLISH sign.
 
We are watching the chart where we see a possible Bearish Wedge pattern. I say possible because the S&P 500 may simply move higher and break thru the upper, horizontal dashed, red-line in the above chart. The chart doesn’t predict a bearish failure yet. An attempt at all-time highs has only been rejected twice recently. I’d like to see the pattern play out longer before we can accept it, but it is definitely a pattern to watch. The S&P 500 needs to break significantly above the 7820 area before we can cancel the Bearish Wedge pattern.
 
Monday there was more Low volume on the NYSE, about 23% below the monthly average. This begs the question: Are we running out of buyers? It’s possible, but too early to tell.
 
The McClellan Oscillator remained Bullish; other breadth indicators remain weak, but they are improving.
 
We continue to watch indicators.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.