“Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in March after increasing 0.1 percent in February. For the first quarter of 2015 as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, the first quarterly decrease since the second quarter of 2009. The decline last quarter resulted from a drop in oil and gas well drilling and servicing…and from a decrease in manufacturing production of 1.2 percent. In March, manufacturing output moved up 0.1 percent for its first monthly gain since November; however, factory output in January is now estimated to have fallen 0.6 percent, about twice the size of the previously reported decline...At 105.2 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in March was 2.0 percent above its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in March to 78.4 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.” Press release at…
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/
My cmt: Manufacturing moved up a bit in March and total industrial production was up 2% year-over-year so, on-the-whole, this report is not particularly bad..
CRUDE INVENTORY (Reuters/CNBC)
“Stockpiles of U.S. crude grew by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended April 10, the Energy Information Administration reported. Total inventories stood at 483.7 million barrels, the highest level on record. In the prior week, the agency reported stocks surged by nearly 11 million barrels, the largest build since 2001.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102587037
My cmt: This low inventory build was bullish and oil futures prices were at their highest in 2015 early today.
FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY MODERATELY IMPROVING (USA Today)
“The economy continued to grow at a stubbornly slow pace in late winter, according to the Federal Reserve's Beige book, an anecdotal roundup of business conditions at the 12 Fed districts. The Beige book, which comes out every six weeks, said the economy in February and March was improving "modestly" or "moderately" across most districts, although Atlanta and Kansas City were simply holding steady.” Story at…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/04/15/beige-book-slow-economy/25823231/
MARKET REPORT
-Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2107 at the close.
-VIX was down about 6% to 12.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note again slipped slightly to 1.89%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 57% at the close Wednesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +109. (It was +70 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 3-each day.
Internals switched to positive on the markets Wednesday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 4.3% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.2% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is very good for risk-free money.)
I sold my small position in the Gold ETF GLD today. It hadn’t gone anywhere in several months and the dollar looks like it may continue to strengthen and, if so, that will put pressure on the shiny metal. I took a 1% loss.
