Jobless Claims…New Home Sales…Crude Inventories…New Highs for Nasdaq Composite

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits held below 300,000 for the seventh

straight week, pointing to a rebound in payrolls after hiring eased last month. Jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 295,000 in the week ended April 18, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington.” Story at…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/jobless-claims-in-u-s-little-changed-in-payroll-survey-week
 
NEW HOME SALES (Briefing.com)
“New home sales declined 11.4% in March to 481,000 from an upwardly revised 543,000 (from 539,000) in February. The Briefing.com Consensus expected new home sales to fall to 520,000…New home demand has accelerated from 2013 and 2014 levels.” Details at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/newhom.htm
 
CRUDE INVENTORY (Reuters)
“Crude inventories rose by 5.32 million barrels to 489 million in the last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.9 million barrels. It was the 15th consecutive weekly build for crude stocks and pushed U.S. commercial inventories to a record peak…’Prices will likely key off of the supportive aspects of the report more than incredible amount of crude oil inventories…’” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/22/energy-eia-oil-idUSL1N0XJ1C420150422
 
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX POPS ABOVE ITS YEAR 2000 CLOSING HIGH
The all-time high on the Nasdaq Composite index was 2049 in March of year 2000.  Today it closed at 2056 I always thought the last major index to fall wouldn’t make it to new highs before the markets entered another bear market.  If this is real, i.e. the Nasdaq can continue significantly above its old high, then it may be time to bury this old secular bear market.  This could also give stocks a chance to pop further.
 
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2113 at the close. 
-VIX was down about 2% to 12.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.95%.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) climbed to 54% at the close Thursday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +105. (It was +69 Wednesday.)  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was zero.  In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has not changed each day.
Internals remained neutral on the markets, but they did improve.

 

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
 
NTSM         
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE is positive.  VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.  

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION

I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. 
 
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) continues to outperform the S&P 500.  Since 1 February it is 4.1% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.9% ahead of the S&P 500.
 
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I.  (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)