Please pass the link on to your friends, especially those in Government service. The Government employee 401k (TSP) is focused on the S&P 500 as is this blog. …
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/
I need more readers.
RETAIL SALES (WSJ)
“U.S. retail sales rose for the first time in four months in March, but the gain wasn’t enough to offset weaker spending during the winter months as consumers continued to largely pocket savings from cheaper gasoline prices. Sales at retailers and restaurants increased 0.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted $441.4 billion…” Story at
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-retail-sales-up-0-9-in-march-1429014730
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2096 at the close.
-VIX was down about 2% to 13.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note again slipped slightly to 1.90%.
There was late day selling again and market internals weakened a bit, both bearish indications. On a positive note, RSI remains well contained and VIX declined. Overall, there was little new in today’s market tea-leaves.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 55% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +70. (It was +100 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-6. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has DECREASED by 6-each day.
Internals switched to neutral on the markets Tuesday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 - the "S" fund in the TSP) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 4.2% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is very good for risk-free money.)
