“Job openings surged to their highest level since 2001 in February. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed there were 5.13 million job openings in February.” Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/jolts-report-april-7-2015-4
If there are record numbers of job openings, it seems unlikely that the economy is collapsing. On the whole though, jobs are a lagging indicator.
DOW TRANSPORTS VS THE DOW CALLING FOR DOWN MARKET? (Financial Sense)
“No. That’s the short answer. It used to a hundred years ago but right now the Dow Transportation Average is dominated by airlines… It’s not the same thing now even though the name is still the same.... It is not the same thing that Charles Dow talked about a hundred years ago when you were looking at industrials and rails. So people shouldn’t get suckered into thinking it works the same as a hundred years ago.” – Tom Mcclellan. Interview with Tom McClellan at…
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tom-mcclellan/interview-gold-stocks-oil
MARKET REPORT
- Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up for much of the day, but finished down about 0.2% to 2076 at the close.
-VIX was up about 0.2% to 14.77 at 4PM.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note slipped to 1.88%.
The trend doesn’t look very strong now. The S&P 500 has pushed up to the 2090 area a few times intraday, but has not managed to stay there. It needs to break above about 2090 and remain there for a couple of days to send an all-clear signal.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 52% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +86. (It was +116 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-14. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has DECREASED by 14-each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market Tuesday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM analysis remained Neutral. The PRICE indicator is positive. VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
I sold my UWM (2x Russell 2000) position as the markets dropped today. I am leery of holding 2x ETF’s too long since the market is not climbing as fast as I’d like and profits can evaporate quickly in the 2x funds .
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 4.4% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is very good for risk-free money.)
