“The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to a strengthening labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 for the week ended April 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday.” Story at…
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2015/04/16/weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-rise/
HOUSING STARTS (WSJ)
“U.S. housing starts rose 2% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 926,000 in March, the Commerce Department said Thursday. So far this year starts are averaging only 969,000 a month, compared with just over 1 million last year.” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-starts-up-2-in-march-1429187637
PHILADELPHIA FED (Business Insider)
“The latest reading on regional manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve beat expectations, coming in at 7.5…indicating continued expansion in economic activity in the region.” Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/philadelphia-federal-reserve-report-april-16-2015-4
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2105 at the close.
-VIX was down about 2% to 12.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained unchanged at 1.89%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 56% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +57. (It was +109 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +2. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 2-each day.
Internals remained positive on the markets Thursday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. The PRICE indicator remains positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 4.3% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.6% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)
