“Companies in the U.S. service sector such as health care and retail grew at a slightly slower but still solid pace in March, according to survey of senior executives. The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index fell to 56.5% from 56.9% in February. Still, readings over 50% signal more businesses are expanding...” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-index-dips-in-march-but-shows-steady-us-growth-2015-04-06
THIS IS WHEN TO WORRY ABOUT MARKETS – TOM LEE (CNBC)
“Known for his bullish outlook on the U.S. stock market, Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee is not overly worried about Friday's disappointing jobs report. He said, however, that it would be cause for concern if the sluggish pace of economic growth in the first quarter continues in the second…Lee [also] said… investors will not be too spooked by a hike because it signals the central bank is confident the U.S. economy is healthy and no longer needs a zero interest rate environment.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102562096
MARKET REPORT
- Monday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.7% to 2081 at the close.
-VIX was up about 0.5% to 14.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note slipped to 1.90%.
The trend looks troubling now. The S&P 500 needs to break above about 2090 and remain there for a couple of days to send an all-clear signal.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) slipped to 53% at the close Monday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +116. (It was +100 Thursday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-13. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has DECREASED by 13-each day.
Internals remained neutral; on the market Monday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM analysis switched to Neutral. The PRICE indicator is positive. VIX, VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
I am still holding my trade on the 2xRussell 2000 (UWM) from the bottom
call on 26 March. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 4.7% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is very good for risk-free money.)
