“Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks than at any time in almost 15 years, signaling underlying strength in the labor market even as hiring cooled last month. From mid-March through the seven days ended April 4, jobless claims averaged 282,250 a week, the lowest since June 2000… Applications over the latest week climbed by 14,000 to 281,000…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/jobless-claims-in-u-s-over-past-month-lowest-in-almost-15-years
CAN THE RUSSELL 2000 CONTINUE BEATING THE S&P 500? (Andrew Thrasher)
Chart from…http://andrewthrasher.tumblr.com/post/115939253009/can-the-russell-2000-continue-to-lead-the-s-p-500
If more stocks in the respective index are advancing (resulting in a rising advance-decline line for the smaller cap stocks) it would seem that small caps will continue to outperform. Analysis at…
http://andrewthrasher.tumblr.com/post/115939253009/can-the-russell-2000-continue-to-lead-the-s-p-500
MARKET REPORT
- Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2091 at the close.
-VIX was down about 6% to 13.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 1.96%.
Sentiment (%-bulls in Rydex/Guggenheim long/short funds) has been falling implying the markets can go higher.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 56% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +105. (It was +105 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +4. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 4-each day.
Internals remained Positive on the markets Thursday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained BUY primarily due to falling VIX; but the important BUY was after the October low. The PRICE and VIX indicators are positive. VOLUME and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks
in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative,
but appropriate for a conservative retired guy.
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the
S&P 500) continues to outperform the S&P 500. Since February it is 4.2% ahead of the
S&P 500.THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is very good for risk-free money.)
