Existing Home Sales…Truck Tonnage Rebounds from Weak February…Time to Buy International

EXISTING HOME SALES AT 18-MONTH HIGH (Reuters)
“U.S. home resales surged to their highest level in 18 months in March as inventories improved, a sign of strength in the housing market ahead of the spring selling season. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 6.1 percent to an annual rate of 5.19 million units, the highest level since September 2013. The percent increase was the largest since December 2010.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/22/us-usa-economy-housing-idUSKBN0ND1NP20150422
 
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE (American Trucking Association)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.1% in March, following a revised drop of 2.8% during the previous month. In March, the index equaled 133.5 (2000=100). The all-time high is 135.8, reached in January 2015.  Compared with March 2014, the SA index increased 5%...” Press release at…
http://www.trucking.org/article.aspx?uid=3ff0e309-8531-4271-bfcf-e39d9955a677
My cmt: No recession indicated here. If you hear that the transports aren’t holding up: “forgedda ‘bout it.” Transports (transportation related stocks) are often touted as a way to predict the market.  If they are falling, the Dow theorists suggest this shows a falling economy if the Dow begins to falter too. Perhaps, but Dow Theory is 100-years old and the transportation index now includes airlines, so it’s not clear that the theory is relevant. See blog discussion “DOW TRANSPORTS VS THE DOW CALLING FOR DOWN MARKET?” At…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/04/job-openings-joltsdow-theory-calling.html
 
FORGET THE US; BUY OVERSEAS (MarketWatch)
“Calls for investors to reduce their exposure to U.S. equities are growing louder. Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with more than $4 trillion under management, in a recent editorial in the Financial Times recommended reducing allocation to U.S. equities in favor of international markets that are less expensive.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/reduce-allocation-to-us-stocks-blackrocks-koesterich-2015-04-21?dist=afterbell
My cmt: I have added overseas investments thru the EFA ETF (“I” fund in the TSP program.) I may add more at the end of the month. 
 
I see more traders on CNBC giving up on the US and even suggesting shorting the S&P 500.  I am not ready to do that yet.
 
MARKET REPORT
- Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2108 at the close, just less than 10 pts from its all-time high achieved 2-months ago. 
-VIX was down about 3.5% to 12.79.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 1.98%.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 52% at the close Wednesday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +69. (It was +67 Tuesday.)  The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-4.  In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has DECREASED by 4-each day. Internals remained stubbornly neutral on the markets Monday; only Breadth is positive.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
 
NTSM         
Wednesday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE, VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION

I remain fully invested at 50% invested in smaller cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. 
 
The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) continues to outperform the S&P 500.  Since 1 February it is 3.8% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.3% ahead of the S&P 500.
 
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 25%-S; 15%-I.  (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)