“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“America’s food security is a matter of national security, and the U.S. agricultural system behind it, which contributes over $1 trillion to our economy, is at risk. Not from drought or disease, but from a persistent and deepening labor shortage that has reached a critical inflection point... Over four decades of inconsistent immigration policies and political gridlock have created confusion — sending mixed signals to voters, farmers, and immigrant workers alike. These policies have encouraged laborers to come to America in search of fair wages through rural farm jobs, and encouraged dairy farmers to fill their critical labor needs with these experienced workers. Farmers have done so by completing the appropriate documentation, withholding taxes, and paying competitive wages — typically multiple times the federal minimum wage... Failures of the past are not corrected by creating even greater problems in the present, or worse, by using rhetoric intended to eliminate any path forward. Doing so risks food access and affordability, disrupts communities, and leaves U.S. farms and hardworking families with an uncertain future.
With a border that is now secure, this is the opportunity for our President to adopt a pragmatic workforce solution. This is the time to address what past leaders lacked the ability or will to resolve.” – Dennis Rodenbaugh, President & CEO, Dairy Farmers of America, Inc. Letter at...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-agricultural-labor-reform-essential-us-dairy-dennis-rodenbaugh-clnkc/
“As expected, the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would leave its key benchmark rate unchanged...Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank has yet to cut rates due to the uncertainty and inflation risks posed by Trump’s tariff agenda. Many economists say that the full impact from tariffs on pricing has only just started to be felt, and inflation could pick up in the second half of the year.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/fed-holds-interest-rates-steady-what-that-means-for-your-money.html
Private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the July ADP National Employment Report®...Year-over-year pay growth in July was 4.4 percent for job-stayers and 7 percent for job-changers.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-104-000-jobs-in-july-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302517308.html
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 426.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6363.
-VIX declined about 3% to 15.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.370% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a neutral +2 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is still moving upward – a bullish sign.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
Concerning signs remain; but I won’t take action until I see more negative indicators.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
