... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
“Blind obedience to authority is the greatest enemy of truth.” - Albert Einstein
 
“A slew of crucial economic data is set for release this week, including the jobs report, inflation, consumer confidence and corporate earnings. We’ll get the first glimpse at America’s second-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy. And, most crucially, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut rates or hold steady one more time.” - CNN
 
CWP WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

It appears that tariffs could be making their way into the data. Apparel increased 0.4%, toys increased 1.8%, and household furnishings increased 1.0% for the month. All three of those categories are sensitive to tariffs with some companies, such as Nike, Mattel, Best Buy, and Walmart, already raising prices to pass along their increased costs, at least in part, to consumers. Car companies, such as Ford, are also planning to increase their prices in the second half.

 
WALL STREET’S BAD IDEA FOR YOUR 401(k) - Excerpt (WSJ)
“Wall Street is promoting a colossal lie. Money managers are in a desperate race to stuff illiquid, so-called private-market assets into funds anyone can buy, including your 401(k). They say we all can earn high return and low risk with nontraded “alternatives” like private equity, venture capital and private real estate. A close look at pending moves at two funds reveals how bogus this argument is—and why investors should just say no to this juggernaut of alternative assets.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-streets-big-bad-idea-for-your-401-k-f1003137?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgOzigS6enFMcqda5CLe3RDdTm7PLDAewyEVqywaa1PD6KlrDiDIiFqlLpmT4A%3D&gaa_ts=68869975&gaa_sig=aEgdNbrawNCrk5BZtBGA5lOuACPk-aQQBOl22sYrIVTotbzAqpr2-5ZOMfG2wVilE12NskuaRK5wIMLDDbUEoQ%3D%3D
 
THE HOTTESTS BUSINESS STRATEGY IS BUYING CRYPTO (WSJ)
“It’s the hottest trade of the summer. Companies are raising tens of billions of dollars, not to invest in their businesses or hire employees, but to purchase bitcoin and more obscure cryptocurrencies.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/crypto-treasury-e7ae573c?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAguI665-hlcvtN5vYSBvTcUHsfa-8QnBaPRfl1oTIxlZ4HtKwvMpzv8I3W7BJ8%3D&gaa_ts=68869a5f&gaa_sig=mRIkBa6P-MCYpUJQkpSFmyxLmdE5Y0IeeX1CyPp-AhF1wqqAzSBdjS8mQa8EVjMsbCU9n1Ul6qZORnPDtWm7nQ%3D%3D
My cmt: What could possibly go wrong here? Invest in the company, or buy beanie babies? Hmmm...
 
EU – US TRADE DEAL (Euronews vis msn)
“The European Union and the United States have struck a tentative trade deal to avert a potentially devastating tariff war between two of the world's largest economies, capping a race against time before a self-imposed deadline of 1 August.
Under the agreed terms, finalised on Sunday by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump during a meeting in Scotland, the majority of EU exports bound for the American market will be subject to a 15% tariff.” Story at...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/von-der-leyen-and-trump-strike-eu-us-trade-deal-with-15-tariff-for-the-bloc/ar-AA1Jo0hl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=68
 
HIKING TARGETS (The Street)
“-Oppenheimer raised their year-end target for the index from to 7,100 (from 5,950 in April), which would be roughly an 11% gain from current prices.
-Morgan Stanley is banking on the S&P 500 to hit 7,200 by mid-2026, which would be a 12% increase over the next 12 months or so.” Story at...
Morgan Stanley makes bold S&P 500 projection as U.S. dollar weakens
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 6390.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 14.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.408% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – added 6/5/2025 & 6/27/2025
XLK – added 6/27/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a bullish +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is moving upward – a bullish sign.
 
The S&P 500 made a new high today; Breadth remained above 50% as measured by the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE. That’s a good sign. We hate to see new, all-time highs with collapsing breadth.
 
When the Index makes a new high, we always check the % of issues on the NYSE making new 52-week highs. Today’s number of 2.9% shows a very narrow advance and it is warning that a correction greater than 10% is headed our way. Now just to confuse the issue; today’s S&P 500 chart showed a strong advance late in the day to push the Index into positive territory. New-highs are sometimes slow to catch up to the index when the index is moving sharply higher late in the day, so I won’t put too much faith in this indicator, for now. This is the second warning in 5-sessions so we’ll need to pay attention.
 
RSI was overbought, but the Bollinger Band indicator was not. Looks like the market can go higher. I keep hearing more pundits predicting a correction. The more that do, the less likely it becomes; but we can’t avoid one forever.   
 
BOTTOM LINE
There are some concerning signs, but I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.