Navigate the Stock Market: January 2026

Friday, January 30, 2026

PPI … Chicago PMI … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

THANK HEAVEN FOR COAL POWER (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The weekend’s arctic blast [last weekend] has put much of the U.S. grid through a stress test and served as another alert about the growing risks to electric-power reliability. Americans can be grateful the Biden crowd didn’t succeed in forcing all coal plants to shut down…Early Sunday morning, coal accounted for some 40% of power in the Midwest’s MISO grid, 24% in the eastern U.S. PJM Interconnection and 18% in Texas, with most of the rest coming from natural gas and nuclear.
New York’s blockade on gas pipelines has constrained the fuel supply for power plants across New England. Power plants in the region had to resort to burning oil, which accounted for 40% of electricity at times of peak demand. Get this—the region generated more power from burning wood and trash than from wind power…The deep-freeze energy scare underscores why the Energy Department issued emergency orders in recent months to “stop the political closure of coal plants” in the Midwest. The grid needs all the coal power it can get when temperatures plunge or skyrocket. Environmental groups have challenged the department’s orders. Is the goal to reduce carbon emissions by making Americans freeze?” – Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/thank-heaven-for-coal-power-in-the-cold-dc3b9a33?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqebrQ2_HVHNcQqVweZyLA8spRlqpk3UnViEp-yHCw25Plf1QMj5axw5r59ELnE%3D&gaa_ts=697c18bf&gaa_sig=b3M0bUS78uyOI_Ied-DACWqF2DbBynUUmjTXIyDz-66W-NkEwqEGSNXY_P2SkKCQIg7kDFU3_xsrYNg4V_fW3Q%3D%3D

AMERICA DOESN’T DO FASCISM (WSJ)
“…This week the Atlantic published an essay headlined “Yes, It’s Fascism,” in which Brookings Institution scholar Jonathan Rauch draws up a series of categories— “demolition of norms,” “might is right,” “police-state tactics,” “blood-and-soil nationalism”— that in his view describe both Mr. Trump and “classical” fascism of the 1930s…
…I assume Mr. Walz knows the difference between the Gestapo and federal ICE agents, and between detention centers for illegal immigrants and Bergen-Belsen… But some not insubstantial number of these politicians’ listeners take their assertions both seriously and literally. That so many people in Minneapolis have endangered themselves by waving phones in the faces of armed federal officers and shouting obscenities as if they were psychotic is one of many unhappy consequences. American public figures have a duty to think better of their country than to believe it capable of putting a fascist in the White House. Some of them might ponder the possibility that he wouldn’t be there at all were it not for excesses they cheered at the time.” - Barton Swaim., Opinion Columnist, Unruly Republic, The Wall Street Journal. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim
My comment: Looking at it rationally produces another conclusion. During the campaign preceding the 2020 election, Trump said he would close the borders and evict all illegal immigrants. He was subsequently elected and is doing exactly what he said he would do. That is Democracy – not Fascism.

Further, if those who were being arrested went peaceably, and protestors were respectful, there would be no claims of fascism.

PPI (Reuters)
“The PPI for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the biggest rise since ‌July, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November… In the 12 months through December, the PPI increased 3.0%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-producer-prices-accelerate-december-services-2026-01-30/

CHICAGO PMI (Investing.com)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a key indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector in the Chicago region, has reported a significant expansion. The actual reading for the index stood at 54.0, indicating a robust growth in the sector.” Story at…
https://ca.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/chicago-pmi-signals-manufacturing-sector-expansion-surpasses-expectations-93CH-4429573

-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.4% to 6939.
-VIX rose about 3% to 17.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.241% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +1 (1 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Friday there was a Hindenburg Omen
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.

Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. So far, we’ve seen only one. Further, the Fosback High-Low Logic Index uses a similar method of analysis. It is closer to a Buy-signal than a sell.

Breadth is falling. That’s a concern. The first warning signal flashed today - over the last 2 weeks, more issues on the NYSE have gone down than have gone up.

The S&P 500 is likely to make another visit to the lower trendline. The 50-dMA is about 1% below today’s close at 6858. That is a likely stop for this weakness.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test. Now the worry is the lower trendline – will it hold? I think so, but we’ll find out soon.

Breadth was good at the recent all-time-high. As a result, I don’t expect markets to retreat too far. If economic issues continue to decline, this opinion will have to change.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Jobless Claims … Productivity … Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, , trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - , former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the . This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - , Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

(ABC News)
“Applications for jobless aid for the week ending Jan. 24 fell by 1,000 to 209,000 from the previous week’s number which was revised upward by 10,000…” Story at…
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-applications-jobless-benefits-proxy-layoffs-tick-209000-129667752

PRODUCTIVITY (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. worker productivity grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter…, which ‌measures hourly output per worker, increased at an unrevised 4.9% annualized rate…” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-third-quarter-productivity-growth-135529345.html

FACTORY ORDERS (Yahoo Finance)
“Factory orders increased 2.7% after an upwardly revised 1.2% decline in October, the said on Thursday.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-orders-rebound-november-153446529.html

-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6969.
- rose about 16.88.
-The yield on the declined to 4.233% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
– Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026. SOLD 1/28/2026 & 1/29/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +5 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. (I revised yesterday’s spread down from 6 to 5 due to data that came in late.) I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

Not much new to say:
-We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

-It is still up to price action. Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested, but I did sell all of my SSO. (I had forgotten some in another account.) This reduces stock portfolio to 70%, still a high number for a retiree. I didn’t like the indicators, although they improved in the last 15 minutes of trading.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

FED Rate Decision … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

…The next-weakest year of a presidential cycle [after the second] has been the election year itself.
Those returns have been especially bad—surprise, surprise—when an incumbent was finishing his second and last term, like Trump will in 2028: negative 4.3%.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/can-trump-defy-a-presidential-stock-slump-aae5b710?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqdG_-f0nS4DfI0GUY_Z5OiminPp7OMlpncJFpR-SzU5fGcOEgAfNRWL0nJHSZg%3D&gaa_ts=697ab984&gaa_sig=PJc6GtkepnS5_TDdKO3oL_ghusws7DvrMVoirj4J3m9x9JAbckwsbywwB2V3-4XayOnDxR2V8w3NIY825rYmJw%3D%3D

GOP’s $100 BILLION TAX BET: MORE REFUNDS WIN MORE VOTES (WSJ)
“The annual tax-filing season that opened Monday will produce a cash surge estimated at $100 billion beyond last year’s $329 billion total, and it is engineered to buoy Republicans’ sagging voter approval. Public confidence in Trump’s economic leadership has slumped, and better-than-expected growth hasn’t overcome Americans’ anxiety about the cost of living and a slowed job market.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tax-season-refunds-republicans-1d4aac5d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqcPMkPeGkbVt6aKCQWstXKiHY629I-lYqdJpuBT10_yrTsL8A5AIQ0ggSAz_l4%3D&gaa_ts=697ab720&gaa_sig=e5awCuwvNwvyoSKde0fVo9tkf60TSMf9ohalE-ZctNDPSlA8FeckxU_iSEmLuHmlEnS0z17FbXKI-E1NmRB1UQ%3D%3D
My cmt: This comes with another $2 Trillion in debt. And Trump wonders why our interest rates are higher than other countries around the world.

FOMC RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“Meeting market expectations, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its key interest rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%... In voting to hold the line, the committee raised its assessment of economic growth. It also eased its concerns about the labor market as compared with inflation.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/fed-rate-decision-january-2026.html

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6978.
-VIX was unchanged at 16.35.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026. SOLD 1/28/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

The S&P 500 made it up to its upper trendline of the bearish ascending wedge Wednesday, but it quickly retreated. Since I am overinvested, I thought it prudent to reduce risk by selling my leveraged SSO position.

It is still up to price action. Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested, but I did sell SSO. I may sell a bit more. I am still overinvested given market conditions.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

SOLD Leveraged Position

I sold SSO as a risk management action. I am overinvested and I want to see if the S&P 500 can break out of its bearish ascending wedge pattern.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Richmond Fed … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

The S&P 500 has been up 5-days in a row. That’s a high number, but there have only been 12 up-days in the last month. That’s not enough to give a sell-signal. It looks like the markets can continue higher although the Index is due for a down-day.

It is up to price action now. Can the S&P 500 break above the bearish ascending wedge? If not I’ll be worried. As I write this, futures are showing a bullish day is likely tomorrow. Further, the futures market is higher than that upper wedge line – a bullish sign.

The Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday, 28 January. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch, there is a 96% chance that rates will remain unchanged. But, there can still be some market angst around the press conference after the meeting.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested. I haven’t sold anything yet.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 80% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, January 26, 2026

National Activity Index … Durable Goods … Dallas Fed … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

Commentary and charts at…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/01/26/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-november-2025

DURABLE GOODS (Marketplace.org)
“Durable goods orders for November were released Monday, after a government shutdown delayed the Census Bureau report… New durable goods orders shot up more than 5%, after falling in October. You can chalk a lot of that up to a surge in bookings for new planes from Boeing.” Story at…
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/01/26/why-durable-goods-orders-were-up-5-in-november

DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX (Dallas Fed)
“Texas factory activity expanded solidly in January after contracting in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped to 11.2 from -3.0, a reading suggestive of an above-average pace of output expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2601

-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6950.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 16.15. (VIX had fallen earlier in the day, but turned higher around 2pm.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.213% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +12 to +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

I updated my investment percentages over the weekend. My previous estimate wasn’t very good. The stocks have been doing well (pushing my stock percentage higher) and I have been increasing stock % recently. I am now 80% invested with 18% Bonds and only 2% in cash. This is a very aggressive position for a retiree. It’s perfectly ok for someone 20-30 years old. They have plenty of time to make up losses, but retirees don’t. Retirees must be cautious and avoid losses. With that in mind, I will be taking some profits when the S&P 500 hits the upper trend line of the bearish rising wedge formation. If the Index tracks higher, I can always reset positions.

It’s never wrong to take profits.

The Fed meeting wraps up Wednesday, 28 January. According to CME Group’s Fed Watch, there is a 96% chance that rates will remain unchanged. But, there can still be some market angst around the press conference after the meeting.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 80% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”

DEMOCRATS NONPROFIT PROBLEM (WSJ)
“The unfolding debacle in Minneapolis captures an underappreciated fact about the Democratic Party: It is configured to react in unreasoning rage to everything President Trump does. The challenge of “messaging”—how to condemn roundups of illegal migrants without defending protesters’ lawlessness—is only a symptom of the problem. The problem itself arises from the Byzantine network of activist nonprofits created and fostered over the past decade and a half by liberal foundations and progressive billionaires…This is the world wealthy liberals created when they decided climate change and, later, systemic racism and abortion restrictions and Israeli “genocide” were all existential menaces requiring marches and sit-ins and other extrademocratic disruptions. It amounts to a subtler and more effective attack on democracy than anything Mr. Trump has attempted.” - Barton Swain, WSJ Opinion Columnist. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim

LETTERS TO EDITOR (WSJ)
“Ronald Reagan would like a word: ‘Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’
President Trump’s coercion is antithetical to Reaganism, underscoring how he is transforming American conservatism. More important, he’s weakening our economy, national security and the entire free world.” - T. Michael Spencer

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in November 2025 to 97.9 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1% in October to 98.2, down from 98.3 in September…"The US LEI fell again in both October and November," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing. Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-declined-in-both-october-and-november-302669086.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2 pts to 6916.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.231% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

The 5-10-20 Timer switched back to bullish today. It had been neutral for several days. This indicator could be a stand-alone one. It is bullish when the 5-dMA and the 10-dMA are above the 20-dMA and that’s a good crossover signal. Markets are looking good now.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)

My invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, January 22, 2026

Snow … GDP … Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing ... PCE Prices … Consumer Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

CONSUMER SPENDING / PCE PRICES (CNN)
“A shutdown-delayed report from the Commerce Department showed that spending rose 0.5% from October, above economists’ expectations for a 0.4% gain… The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, which brought the annual rate to 2.8%, unchanged from the September rate that was reported last month.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/22/economy/us-pce-consumer-spending-inflation-october-november

JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“U.S. jobless claims ticked slightly higher last week but remain subdued, signaling little reason to fret that the labor market has worsened abruptly.
The number of people who made fresh filings for unemployment benefits rose to 200,000 in the week through Jan. 17…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobless-claims-show-no-red-flags-401ef600?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfK1ex_2Dd8sDeLqwO5YKjkyLCaO3wde8uXyxUh4IjfMqtzu_nAkHWc6FoIzL8%3D&gaa_ts=6972bcd1&gaa_sig=VCGcZijzm_QyP-aypS1OanmSOSJ8avPDfj8uVAfLxnhanDxvaooUDtlZX0BX9vtessaggF4e-BeP6BsQ4AynFQ%3D%3D

GDP (Real Clear Markets)
“This week’s revision of third-quarter GDP offers early but compelling evidence that the long-awaited Trump manufacturing boom is beginning to take shape… Real GDP growth for the quarter was revised up to a strong 4.4 percent annualized rate.” Story
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/22/gdp_data_reveal_green_shoots_for_the_trump_manufacturing_boom_1160331.html

KC FED MANUFACTURING (Kansas City FED)
“Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged, and expectations for future activity cooled but remained expansionary. Prices paid for raw materials increased further this month, while finished product prices growth cooled.” Report at…
https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-was-unchanged-in-january/

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6913.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).

MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators was unchanged at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign.

We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart. I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.

BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)