… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“When markets are soaring, it is easy to forget that stocks can fall 50% and stay there long enough to test anyone's nerve. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger built Berkshire Hathaway to withstand exactly that kind of punishment, not with clever trading, but with a disciplined way of choosing businesses, holding cash, and managing their own behavior…The core of their playbook is simple but not easy: protect yourself from forced selling, own resilient companies bought at sensible prices, and keep your emotions from turning a temporary markdown into a permanent loss. Everything else in their record, from crisis-era bargains to decades of compounded gains, flows from those habits.” Story at…
Buffett and Munger's strategy to survive a 50% market drop
 
S&P 500 RECORD (Motley Fool)
“The S&P 500 finished 2025 up by 16% or more for the third consecutive year. This has happened only five times in the S&P 500's history. History suggests that the index could either soar again in 2026 -- or fall by a double-digit percentage.” Story at…
The S&P 500 just did something for the 5th time in 97 years. Here's what history says may happen in 2026.
My cmt: Wow.  That prediction waffles as much as some of mine!
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6945, a new, all-time-high.
-VIX declined about 1% to 14.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.169% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +11 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
New, all-time highs for the S&P 500 give us an opportunity to check the health of the stock market. Specifically, we look at market breadth to make sure there is plenty of participation across the market. Today’s breadth looks good. Over the last 2 weeks, 54% of issues on the NYSE have been higher. In addition, 8% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs today.  That number is well above the 5-year average. The McClellan Oscillator is positive. Overall, the stats suggest a broad, healthy market.  
 
Indicators are looking good. I may add a trading position in SSO or QLD. We’ll see.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

As of Monday, 1 December, my invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.